铠侠控股：NAND 价格涨势延续，但股价上行空间有限；维持中性评级

Kioxia Holdings (285A.T) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Company: Kioxia Holdings - Ticker: 285A.T - Market Cap: ¥6.3 trillion / $40.0 billion - Enterprise Value: ¥7.0 trillion / $44.6 billion - Industry: Semiconductor, specifically NAND flash memory Key Points Industry Dynamics - NAND Market Tightness: The NAND market is experiencing significant tightness due to strong demand for enterprise SSDs (eSSDs) for servers and constraints in cleanroom capacity affecting NAND production [1][2] - Price Uptrend: The price uptrend for NAND is expected to continue through at least October to December 2026, with estimates for average price increases revised to approximately 40% year-over-year for CY26 [1][20] Company-Specific Factors - Low eSSD Exposure: Kioxia has relatively low exposure to the eSSD market, which is currently seeing strong demand. This could limit the company's ability to capitalize on rising prices in this segment [2][20] - OEM Contracts: A significant portion of Kioxia's sales comes from OEM contracts with quarterly price negotiations, limiting exposure to the rapidly rising channel and spot markets [2] - DRAM Sourcing: As a pure-play NAND manufacturer, Kioxia must source DRAM externally, which is expected to increase costs and constrain profit margins compared to peers [2] Financial Performance and Projections - Operating Profit Estimates: Operating profit estimates for FY3/26 to FY3/28 have been raised by 6%, 36%, and 31% respectively, reflecting new price assumptions [3] - Revenue Growth: Projected revenues are expected to grow from ¥1,706.5 billion in FY3/25 to ¥2,983.7 billion in FY3/28, indicating a significant growth trajectory [6][12] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS estimates have been adjusted to ¥520.0 for FY3/26 and ¥1,410.3 for FY3/28, with a notable increase in EPS growth expected [12][19] Valuation and Price Target - Target Price: The 12-month target price is set at ¥11,400, based on a revised cost of equity assumption of 8% for FY3/26 and 12% for FY3/27 [3][21] - Valuation Risks: Key risks include NAND industry cyclicality, high dependence on specific customers, and the emergence of new NAND players in China [21] Additional Insights - Market Performance: Kioxia's stock has shown significant absolute performance, with a 567.8% increase over 12 months [10] - Profit Margins: Kioxia maintains relatively high profit margins due to strong cost competitiveness, which is a positive indicator for future performance [20] Conclusion - Investment Rating: The overall rating for Kioxia Holdings remains Neutral, reflecting limited further upside potential despite favorable market conditions and strong demand for NAND products [3][20]