2026 年能源、清洁技术与公用事业会议（2026 年 1 月 6 日）-2026 Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference (Jan 6, 2026) - [Presentation]

Summary of Global Commodities Outlook for 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the commodities sector, particularly energy, CleanTech, and utilities, as presented at the 2026 Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference by Goldman Sachs Global Commodities Research. Key Points Oil Market Outlook - Oil prices declined by 14% year-over-year in 2025, driven by broad-based supply strength leading to large inventory builds, which are expected to continue into 2026 [6][9] - Geopolitical risks present potential price volatility, but the net outlook remains downward [11] - Long-term projections indicate that demand will grow through 2040, but supply is expected to slow down from 2027, introducing downside price risks from technological advancements and geopolitical supply boosts [14][17] Natural Gas Market Outlook - The global LNG market is anticipated to be oversupplied, which will narrow the price spread between the US and Europe [21] - LNG exports are expected to increase by 3.0 Bcf/d in 2026 and 1.4 Bcf/d in 2027, necessitating additional production growth [24] - Haynesville production led growth in 2025, but challenges are expected in 2026 due to a low rig count [27] - The risk to the 2026 Henry Hub forecast is skewed to the downside due to strong production [30] Copper Market Outlook - The report identifies copper as a favored industrial metal, with a forecasted price of $11,400 for 2026, supported by a deficit outside the US [48] - The copper-aluminium price ratio is expected to reach new highs due to supply constraints and increased demand from electrification [59] Gold Market Outlook - A rally in gold prices is anticipated, with central banks and ETF investors competing for limited bullion, potentially driving prices up by 14% to $4,900 by December 2026 [53][59] Trade Recommendations - Long positions in gold and copper are recommended, while short positions in Brent and European natural gas are suggested due to expected market surpluses [59] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering geopolitical factors and technological advancements in the commodities market, which could significantly impact supply and demand dynamics [11][17] - The potential slowdown in the US's AI race with China may also influence energy demand and market conditions [40][46] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts from the Goldman Sachs Global Commodities Outlook for 2026, highlighting the trends and potential investment opportunities within the commodities sector.