2026 年全球科技展望=Global Tech Outlook 2026

Summary of Key Points from Morgan Stanley Research - Global Tech Outlook 2026 Industry Overview - Focus: The report primarily discusses the technology sector, with a specific emphasis on semiconductors and hardware within the Asia Pacific and European markets [20][40]. Core Insights and Arguments - Semiconductor Demand: The demand for AI hardware, particularly Nvidia GPU server racks, is expected to double year-over-year in 2026, with data center-related revenue projected to exceed 40% of overall revenue in 2025 and at least 50% in 2026 [20][21]. - Substrate Demand: Demand for ABF substrates has bottomed, driven by AI GPU/Accelerators, while BT substrates benefit from a memory super-cycle and rising raw material prices, leading to upward revisions in demand volumes and average selling prices (ASPs) [20][21]. - Smartphone Market: The smartphone industry is anticipated to face component cost increases in 2026, putting downward pressure on margins, particularly for mid-to-low-end products. High-end products are expected to perform better [20][21]. - PC OEMs/ODMs: Margin headwinds are expected for PC OEMs/ODMs due to rising memory prices, leading to multiple quarters of margin compression [20][21]. - TV Panel Pricing: TV panel prices are showing signs of bottoming out, but rising memory costs may pressure pricing in the near term [20][21]. Preferred and Least Preferred Companies - Most Preferred: - AI Hardware: Wiwynn, Accton, Kingslide, BizLink, Delta, Wistron - Substrates: Unimicron, SEMCO - MLCC: SEMCO - Smartphones: Xiaomi - Display/TV: BOE - PC OEMs: Lenovo [20][21]. - Least Preferred: - AI Hardware: Giga-Byte - Substrates: NYPCB - Smartphones: Mid-to-low-end products - Display/TV: Sanan - PC OEMs: Acer [20][21]. Market Dynamics - DRAM Pricing: DRAM pricing is expected to move higher into the first half of 2026, with inventory levels normalizing [27][30]. - Automotive Semiconductors: The automotive semiconductor market is experiencing a decline, with significant de-stocking challenges, but there are long-term tailwinds in data centers and grid optimization [50][53]. Company-Specific Insights - ASML: Positive momentum for lithography demand is expected, with strong DRAM spending and advanced logic speed. ASML is rated as a top pick with a price target of €1,000 [41][42]. - ASM International: Expected to benefit from leading-edge logic and advanced DRAM, with a price target of €625 [44]. - Besi: Anticipated strong growth across its portfolio, driven by AI [46]. - Infineon: Facing near-term de-stocking challenges but expected to benefit from long-term data center spending [53]. Additional Considerations - Market Sentiment: Investors are advised to monitor the cyclical and secular drivers affecting the semiconductor market, particularly in light of the ongoing AI infrastructure roll-out [53]. - Valuation Methodology: The report includes various price targets and valuation scenarios for the companies discussed, indicating a range of potential outcomes based on market conditions [41][44][46][53]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the Morgan Stanley Research report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the technology sector, particularly in semiconductors and hardware.