电子化学品、精细化学品 2026 年投资策略：持续聚焦 AI 相关材料-Electronic Chemicals, Fine Chemicals Continue to Focus on AI-related Materials in 2026 Investment Strategy

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry Focus: Electronic Chemicals and Fine Chemicals in Japan - Industry View: Both sectors are rated as "In-Line" by Morgan Stanley, indicating stable performance expectations for the upcoming periods [5][6][43] Electronic Chemicals - Resonac Holdings: Expected to continue significant profit growth driven by: - Expansion in AI-related materials such as Thermal Interface Materials (TIM) - Increased volumes in High-Density (HD) products - Benefits from restructuring efforts related to General Electric (GE) [5][43] - Sumitomo Bakelite: Anticipated to maintain strong fundamentals due to: - Stable growth in sealants - Wider adoption of LaZ materials [5][43] - Tokyo Ohka Kogyo: Market share is recovering in the 2nm segment, but growth is weaker than consensus expectations, with a noted decline in the 1.4nm segment [5][43] Fine Chemicals - Mitsubishi Gas Chemical: Gaining market share in the BGA (Ball Grid Array) market through sales to Ibiden and Unimicron [6][43] - Tokuyama: Experiencing strong growth in aluminum nitride and isopropyl alcohol (IPA), although trends in Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM) appear weak [6][43] - NOF: Notable growth in explosives, with a solid performance in DDS (Drug Delivery Systems). Currently focusing on the timing of recovery in the cosmetics ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) business [6][43] - Air Water: Assessing the impact of improper accounting, but core businesses are becoming clearer, attracting attention for their potential [6][43] - Denka: Expanding low-dielectric silica and resins for CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) applications, but facing increasing special losses beyond consensus expectations [6][43] - Daicel: Currently in an adjustment phase for filter tow, with attractive valuations but lacking a clear growth driver [6][43] - Kaneka: Functional resins for the US market are expected to remain weak in Q3, with a full recovery anticipated in Q4 [6][43] - Kureha: Recovery in PVDF (Polyvinylidene Fluoride) for lithium-ion batteries is sluggish, but a relatively high dividend yield supports stock price [6][43] - Sekisui Chemical: Weak performance in automotive and housing-related materials, with an impairment announced on its biorefinery project [6][43] - Nippon Sanso: Facing valuation pressure due to concerns over declining Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) across the industrial gas sector [6][43] Financial Metrics and Projections - Resonac Holdings: - Market Cap: JPY 1,248.3 billion - Target Price: JPY 7,700 - P/E Ratio: Expected to be 14.1 in 2024, increasing to 91.2 in 2025e [7][8] - Tokyo Ohka Kogyo: - Market Cap: JPY 767.4 billion - Target Price: JPY 6,100 - P/E Ratio: Expected to be 32.1 in 2024, decreasing to 22.5 in 2026e [7][8] - Sumitomo Bakelite: - Market Cap: JPY 483.2 billion - Target Price: JPY 5,500 - P/E Ratio: Expected to be 24.7 in 2024, decreasing to 14.3 in 2026e [7][8] Quarterly and Annual Performance - Quarterly Operating Profit: - Electronic Materials showed significant YoY growth, with Resonac Holdings reporting a 55% increase in Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024 [9][10] - Annual Operating Profit: - Electronic Materials projected to reach JPY 170.5 billion in FY25, with a growth rate of 17% [10][11] Additional Insights - Forex Sensitivity: The operating profit is sensitive to currency fluctuations, with a notable impact from changes in the USD/JPY exchange rate [11] - Shareholder Returns: Companies are focusing on maintaining or increasing dividend payouts, with several firms targeting a payout ratio of 40% or higher [11] This summary encapsulates the key insights and financial metrics from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the Electronic Chemicals and Fine Chemicals sectors in Japan.