大摩闭门会：房地产、交运、汽车行业更新

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry: Real Estate Core Insights and Arguments - The overall real estate market is expected to maintain a downward trend in 2026, but the decline may slow compared to 2024 and 2025. The reasoning is based on a cautious and reactive policy stance, similar to 2025, with no significant stimulus expected in the first half of the year [2][3] - The anticipated decline in sales volume for both new and second-hand homes is projected to be in the mid-single digits compared to 2025. New home sales are expected to decline by a high single-digit percentage, while second-hand home sales may see a decrease of 3% to 5% [3][4] - Second-hand home prices are expected to drop by a high single-digit percentage in 2026, reflecting a slight slowdown from the low double-digit decline in 2025. This is attributed to high inventory levels, despite a recent slowdown in new listings [5][6] - The land sales situation remains weak, with a 13% year-on-year decline in land sales in 300 cities as of November 2025. This is expected to translate into a decrease in new construction starts in 2026, with a projected decline of around 15% to 16% compared to 2025 [6][7] - The real estate market is characterized by high inventory levels and weak consumer sentiment, suggesting that price stabilization in major cities may not occur until the second half of 2027 [7][8] - Developers, particularly state-owned enterprises, are expected to face continued pressure on profit margins, despite some recovery in liquidity within the industry [8][9] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies that can effectively manage their commercial properties and those that are consolidating in the residential market, such as Huaren Zhidi and Jianfa International [10][11] Industry: Transportation Core Insights and Arguments - The transportation sector is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with December 2025 showing a further decline in industry growth rates to around 1% to 2% [15][16] - Zhongtong has been gaining market share, with a growth rate exceeding the industry average by approximately 5% in December, indicating a positive trend in market share acquisition [16][17] - The company’s ability to maintain or improve its market share is viewed as more critical than short-term profit fluctuations, as historical data suggests that sacrificing market share for profit can lead to long-term valuation declines [17][18] - The overall outlook for the transportation sector remains positive, with expectations of continued demand growth supported by geopolitical factors and a shift from unregulated to regulated markets [19][20] - The airline industry is expected to see strong demand growth, with a projected increase in passenger numbers by around 10% and ticket prices expected to rise by low double digits [20][21] - Supply constraints in the airline industry are anticipated to persist, with limited capacity growth expected to keep demand pressures high [22][23] - Upcoming catalysts for the airline sector include performance forecasts from major airlines and potential positive impacts from the Spring Festival travel season [25][26] Industry: Automotive Core Insights and Arguments - SAIC Motor Corporation is undergoing significant adjustments and improvements across its various business lines, with a focus on increasing market share in the domestic market [35][36] - The company’s self-owned brands are gradually gaining traction, with expectations of maintaining growth momentum in 2026 [36][37] - Despite challenges in the joint venture segment, particularly with SAIC Volkswagen, there is potential for surprises due to new product launches in the electric vehicle segment [38][39] - The company’s financial services and parts supply businesses are expected to benefit from recovering sales volumes, providing additional profit stability [40][41] - Overall, SAIC is positioned to capture more value as its sales recover, with a current valuation of approximately 10 times its 2026 earnings forecast, indicating potential for valuation recovery [44][45] Other Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring market dynamics and potential catalysts across various sectors, including real estate, transportation, and automotive, as they navigate through 2026 [46][47]