全球光模块 - 2026-27 年 800G 提升市场规模 43%；AI 趋势下 2026 年 1.6T 光模块出货量达 3800 万 - 1.4 亿只-Global Optical transceivers_ Raising value TAM by 43 in 2026-27E with 800G _ 1.6T at 38m _ 14m units in 2026E on AI trend

Summary of Global Optical Transceivers Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Global Optical Transceiver market, with significant updates on the TAM (Total Addressable Market) forecast for 2026-2028, driven by the increasing demand for AI servers and advancements in optical transceiver technology [1][26]. Key Insights - The Global Optical Transceiver value TAM is raised by 43% and 46% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, with projected shipments of 800G and 1.6T units reaching 38 million and 14 million in 2026 [1][28]. - The CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) for shipments of 800G and above optical transceivers is expected to be 34% from 2026 to 2028, reaching 94 million units by 2028 [1][21]. - The ASIC penetration rate for AI chips is projected to increase to 50% by 2027, up from 45%, indicating a shift towards more efficient AI server architectures [1][26]. Market Dynamics - Upstream supply constraints such as EML and CW lasers are critical factors affecting delivery timelines for optical transceiver manufacturers [1][29]. - The transition from pluggable optical transceivers to on-board optics (NPO) and eventually to co-packaged optics (CPO) is anticipated to influence market dynamics significantly [1][30]. Shipment and Revenue Estimates - The Global Optical module market is projected to grow from $33.7 billion in 2025 to $49.5 billion in 2028, with a notable shift in product mix towards higher-speed modules [1][28]. - Shipments of 400G or lower are expected to decline from 94% of total shipments in 2025 to 80% by 2028, indicating a market shift towards higher-speed optical transceivers [21][22]. Competitive Landscape - Companies rated as Buy include: - Optical transceiver makers: Innolight, Eoptolink, TFC Optical - CW lasers/Epiwafer suppliers: Landmark, VPEC - Data center switch: Ruijie [2]. Potential Risks - Geopolitical tensions may impact the supply and demand dynamics of AI chip platforms, particularly in the Chinese market [29]. - The size of AI server clusters could affect the number of optical modules used, with smaller clusters potentially leading to lower attach rates [29]. Technology Trends - The adoption of Silicon Photonics (SiPh) is expected to increase, with projections indicating that SiPh will account for 15% of the market by 2028, particularly in high-speed applications [9][25]. - The migration to higher-speed connections (800G and above) is becoming mainstream for large-scale data centers, with significant growth expected in the 1.6T and 3.2T segments starting from 2026 [22][23]. Conclusion - The Global Optical Transceiver market is poised for substantial growth driven by advancements in AI server technology and increasing demand for high-speed connectivity solutions. The ongoing shifts in technology and market dynamics present both opportunities and challenges for industry players.