中国 - 情绪追踪：年初公共资本开支强劲，私人消费疲软-China – Sentiment Tracker-Year Start Public Capex Strong, Private Consumption Soft

Year Start: Public Capex Strong, Private Consumption Soft Early-2026 growth will likely be public capex-led. Consumers and property remain the weak links, and the Q1 pull toward 5% growth is unlikely to be sustainable. What's new at the year start: 4Q25 GDP still tracks <4.5% despite a possible year-end rebound: December production and capex growth likely rebounded from the recent slowdown, supported by (1) accelerated pass-through of Rmb1tn fiscal expansion in the fall, (2) still resilient external demand, ...