中国 - 情绪追踪：年初公共资本开支强劲，私人消费疲软-China – Sentiment Tracker-Year Start Public Capex Strong, Private Consumption Soft

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - Industry: China Economic Outlook - Key Focus: Public capital expenditure (capex) and private consumption trends in early 2026 Core Insights 1. Growth Projections: Early 2026 growth is expected to be led by public capex, with a potential pull towards 5% growth in Q1, although sustainability is questioned due to weak consumer and property sectors [1][6][8] 2. GDP Tracking: Q4 2025 GDP is projected to remain below 4.5%, despite a possible year-end rebound driven by fiscal expansion and resilient external demand [3][8] 3. Public Capex Initiatives: - Central budget for infrastructure projects increased to Rmb295 billion in Q1 2026 from Rmb200 billion in Q1 2025 - Local government bond issuance plan for Q1 2026 is Rmb665 billion, up from Rmb422 billion in the previous year [6][10] - New venture capital guidance aims to mobilize over Rmb1 trillion [10] 4. Consumption Trends: - Consumer spending is lagging, with retail momentum fading post-holiday and subdued service consumption - Continued support for goods trade-in programs, but initial allocations are smaller than the previous year [6][8][30] 5. Inflation Dynamics: - Recent upticks in CPI and PPI are not indicative of sustained reflation; core CPI remains muted due to weak final demand [7][8][25] - Inflation increases are primarily driven by commodities like gold and coal, rather than broad-based demand [7][8][25] Additional Important Points 1. Trade-in Scheme Adjustments: The 2026 trade-in scheme maintains a similar scale to 2025 but starts softer, with reduced subsidies for home appliances and a narrower range of eligible products [4][30] 2. Monitoring Indicators: Key indicators to watch in the coming months include: - Infrastructure bond issuance pace - Consumer goods trade-in program rollout - Mortgage-subsidy pilot designs post-NPC in March [8][9] 3. Long-term Outlook: A moderation in growth is anticipated from Q2 2026, with potential housing policy adjustments and incremental support for consumption and social welfare in the second half of the year [8][9] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the economic outlook for China, particularly regarding public investment and consumer behavior.