Sandisk Corporation Research Summary Company Overview - Company: Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) - Sector: IT Hardware - Description: Leading developer, manufacturer, and provider of data storage devices and solutions based on NAND flash technology, currently the third largest enterprise SSD manufacturer [9][10] Key Industry Insights - NAND Technology: NAND is becoming increasingly strategic for AI inference workloads, with significant performance improvements expected from new chip developments [1] - Market Demand: Strong demand for NAND products, particularly in enterprise SSDs (eSSDs), is anticipated to drive revenue growth [2][3] Financial Performance and Estimates - Price Objective: Raised to $390 from $300, reflecting higher revenue and EPS estimates [4][6] - Revenue Estimates: - F26E revenue increased to $10.9 billion from $9.9 billion - F27E revenue increased to $13.6 billion from $11.4 billion [4][6] - EPS Estimates: - F26E EPS raised to $16.21 from $11.85 - F27E EPS raised to $27.31 from $19.71 [4][6] - Growth Rates: Expected EPS growth of 436.8% in 2026 and 68.5% in 2027 [5] Pricing and Margins - NAND Pricing: Anticipated to increase by 20-30% quarter-over-quarter in Q4, followed by another 30%+ increase in Q1 [2] - eSSD Margins: Margins are currently not at full run-rate due to startup costs but are expected to improve with scale [2] Capacity and Production Strategy - Capacity Growth: Sandisk plans to grow in line with industry demand, which is projected to be in the mid-teens to low-20s percentage range [3] - Long-Term Agreements (LTAs): Capacity expansion will only be considered with defined volume and pricing agreements in place [3] Investment Rationale - Rating: Buy rating maintained due to long-term growth expectations driven by demand for NAND in AI and eSSD market share gains [10] - Valuation Methodology: Price objective based on discounted cash flow (DCF) and price-to-book (P/B) valuation methods, reflecting the cyclical nature of the NAND market [13] Risks - Upside Risks: 1. Earlier than expected NAND upcycle 2. Stronger expansion in the NAND market due to AI-enabled products 3. Faster eSSD market share gains 4. Quicker recovery in NAND pricing [14] - Downside Risks: 1. Sharp drop in NAND prices due to oversupply 2. Competition from Chinese suppliers 3. Slower adoption of AI-enabled products 4. Loss of market share in eSSD [14] Additional Insights - Market Valuation: Current market valuation is approximately $51.2 billion with a share price of $349.63 [7] - Free Cash Flow: Expected to turn positive in 2026 with $2.6 billion, growing to $4.0 billion in 2027 [8] This summary encapsulates the key points from the research on Sandisk Corporation, highlighting its strategic positioning in the NAND market, financial performance, and potential risks and opportunities.
闪迪公司：NAND 对 AI 推理的战略意义提升，上调盈利预期，目标价至 390 美元