印尼金属・镍：镍矿配额收紧预期升温-Indonesia Metals_ Nickel_ Expectations may be rising for tighter nickel ore quota

Summary of Conference Call on Indonesia Nickel Industry Industry Overview - The focus is on the nickel industry in Indonesia, particularly regarding the regulatory framework surrounding nickel ore quotas (RKAB) and its implications for market dynamics and pricing. Key Points and Arguments Nickel Ore Quota Expectations - There is a rising perception of a tighter nickel ore quota (RKAB) for Q126, which has contributed to strong nickel share price performance, outperforming the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) by 25% [1] - The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources' ruling suggests that miners can operate under previously approved RKABs until March 2026, with a decision on the 2026 RKAB expected by the end of Q126 [1] Potential RKAB Cuts - Seven reasons indicate that gradual RKAB cuts could be on the horizon, with adjustments expected in H226 due to the RKAB revision deadline of July 31, 2026 [2] - The ruling aims to manage national receipts in light of lower commodity prices, allowing flexibility in adjusting RKAB based on supply-demand forecasts [2] Supply Shortage Concerns - Initial headlines suggested a potential 70 million wet metric tons (wmt) nickel ore shortage in 2026, which could lead to a global nickel deficit [3] - However, the actual shortage may be overestimated due to Indonesian miners' ability to import nickel ore, with import prices rising as volumes increased to an estimated 15 million wmt last year [3] Beneficiaries of RKAB Dynamics - Specific miners and ore types are expected to benefit from the RKAB dynamics, with Vale Indonesia (INCO) identified as well-positioned for matte/ore sales [4] - Other miners like Antam (ANTM), Merdeka Battery (MBMA), and Harita (NCKL) may also catch up, with significant EPS revisions anticipated for 2027 and 2028 [4] Additional Important Insights - The report refrains from adjusting 2026 EPS estimates pending further RKAB details, but anticipates substantial revisions for 2027 and 2028 based on updated nickel price forecasts [4] - Risks to the nickel sector include lower-than-expected nickel prices, increased supply, and regulatory delays, which could impact employment and foreign direct investments (FDIs) [8] - The valuation methodologies for various companies (INCO, MBMA, ANTM, NCKL) are based on sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) and discounted cash flow (DCF) analyses, highlighting the importance of project execution risks and market conditions [9][10][11][12] Conclusion - The Indonesian nickel industry is at a critical juncture with regulatory changes impacting supply dynamics and pricing. Investors should closely monitor RKAB developments and market conditions to assess potential investment opportunities and risks.