能源与电力：防御性增长无需他寻-2026 展望解析-Bernstein Energy & Power_ Look no further for defensive growth - our 2026 Outlook, unwrapped

Summary of Bernstein Energy & Power: 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the European Utilities sector, highlighting its performance and outlook for 2026 - Utilities are trading at a ~9% P/E discount to the broader market, with a projected ~7% EPS CAGR over three years compared to ~11% for the market [3][4] Key Highlights - Performance in 2025: Utilities were the second-best performing sector, outperforming the broader market by ~13 percentage points, driven by demand for earnings visibility amid macroeconomic uncertainties and growth prospects in grids and renewables [12] - Investment Opportunities: Electric networks (e.g., SSE, National Grid) are seen as offering the best risk-adjusted exposure, while renewables (e.g., EDP, Engie) also present significant opportunities [3] - Top Picks for 2026: - SSE: Target price of £2,600, with a 19.3% upside, focusing on regulated networks [6][9] - National Grid: Target price of £1,300, with a 13.9% upside, benefiting from US operations and RIIO-T3 price control [9] - EDP: Target price of €4.60, with a 17.5% upside, strong growth in renewables [9] - Engie: Target price of €25.10, with a 12% upside, expected earnings rebound from renewables [9] - Severn Trent: Target price of £3,200, with a 14.7% upside, entering a growth cycle in UK water utilities [9] - RWE: Target price of €50.00, with a 10.5% upside, improving capital allocation and investment discipline [9] - Redeia: Target price of €18.15, with a 19.6% upside, solid earnings growth expected [10] - EDPR: Target price of €13.50, with a 12.1% upside, high earnings growth anticipated [10] - Terna: Target price of €10.00, with a 10.4% upside, good earnings visibility [10] Least Preferred Stocks - Companies with significant merchant power exposure are viewed unfavorably, including Verbund, Fortum, Solaria, Centrica, and Naturgy [8][11] Market Dynamics - Commodity Prices: The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding commodity prices, particularly gas, which could impact power prices in 2026 [17][22] - Gas Outlook: European TTF gas prices are projected to decline from €29/MWh in 2026 to €27/MWh in 2029, with potential downward pressure from increased LNG supply [18][25] - Power Price Sensitivity: The report outlines the sensitivity of various companies to changes in power prices, indicating that top picks have limited exposure to falling prices [44][47] Regulatory and Policy Environment - The EU ETS carbon price is currently above €87 per tonne, with expectations of tightening supply in 2026 due to reduced emission caps and auction supply [39][43] - The report notes the potential for nuclear life extensions in Spain and Belgium, which could provide additional upside for certain companies [56][59] Conclusion - The European Utilities sector is positioned for defensive growth in 2026, with attractive risk-reward profiles and strong catalysts driven by the energy transition and rising demand from AI and data centers [15] - The sector remains undervalued relative to current electricity prices, with earnings expected to be supported by a stable inflation regime [15]