亚洲半导体洞察：2026 年十大主题-Asia Semiconductor Insight_ Top 10 themes for 2026

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on Asia's logic semiconductor firms, with a robust growth forecast driven by cloud AI applications. Non-memory semiconductor revenue is expected to grow by 25% YoY in 2026, following a 16% growth in 2025 [2][9]. Core Company Insights TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) 1. Revenue Growth: TSMC is projected to achieve 25% revenue growth in USD terms for 2026, supported by strong demand for cloud AI products, particularly GPUs and ASICs [3][10]. 2. Capex Increase: Capital expenditures are expected to rise to US$50 billion in 2026, up from US$42 billion in 2025, to support leading-edge technology migrations [12][18]. 3. Capacity Expansion: TSMC's N3 capacity is forecasted to reach 170kwpm by the end of 2026, up from 120kwpm at the end of 2025, with tight utilization expected throughout the year [15][16]. 4. Cloud AI Demand: Cloud AI is anticipated to account for 35-40% of N3 demand in 2026, with significant contributions from major clients like Nvidia and Google [16][18]. MediaTek 1. TPU Production: MediaTek's TPU efforts are expected to ramp up significantly, with sales projected to reach US$0.8 billion in 2026 and US$4 billion in 2027, driven by strong demand and potential upside in volume expectations [3][23]. 2. Market Position: The company is positioned to benefit from the growing market for cloud AI, with expectations of shipping around 1 million units of TPU in 2027, with potential for much higher volumes [23][25]. Advanced Packaging and Testing 1. CoWoS Capacity: The industry is expected to see an 85% YoY increase in CoWoS capacity in 2026, with TSMC's CoWoS capacity projected to reach 110kwpm by Q3 2026 [4][28]. 2. Technological Advancements: Advanced packaging technologies are gaining traction, with Intel's EMIB also expected to ramp up production in H226 [4][28]. Stock Recommendations - Top picks include TSMC, MediaTek, and ASE, with buy ratings on several other companies such as Aspeed, Hon Precision, and GlobalWafers. Neutral ratings are given to Vanguard, Realtek, and SMIC [6]. Additional Insights - Market Dynamics: The semiconductor market is experiencing a shift, with mature foundries and OSAT expected to outgrow fabless companies in 2026 due to improved competition and pricing [5]. - Silicon Wafer Supply: Supply and demand for silicon wafers are expected to stabilize, with a more favorable pricing outlook despite some persistent oversupply [5]. - Potential Risks: Rising memory BOM costs could impact end demand for smartphones and PCs in 2026, posing a risk to overall market growth [5]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the growth potential and strategic directions of major players in the semiconductor industry.