全球轮胎 2026 展望：一场待分胜负的竞赛 -将倍耐力上调至 “跑赢大盘”，大陆集团调至 “与大盘持平”，米其林仍为首选

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global tyre industry, particularly major players including Michelin, Bridgestone, Continental, and Pirelli [2][19][26]. Core Insights and Arguments - Positive Outlook for 2026: The tyre sector is expected to benefit from a favorable setup, with conservative growth expectations and a shift from tariff shocks to a new reality that favors Tier 1 manufacturers [4][21]. - Valuation Upgrades: - Michelin is maintained as the top pick with a target price of €38, representing a 34% upside. The company is expected to achieve margin expansion driven by premiumisation and restructuring [10][19]. - Pirelli is upgraded to Outperform with a target price of €7, indicating a 20% upside. The resolution of governance issues is anticipated to unlock significant value [11][51]. - Bridgestone is also rated Outperform with a target price of ¥4,300, reflecting a 22% upside due to expected revenue growth from new technology [12][45]. - Continental is upgraded to Market-Perform with a target price of €66, indicating a 3% downside. The valuation appears fair, but risks remain regarding the ContiTech sale [13][61]. Financial Performance and Expectations - 2025 Performance: - Continental and Bridgestone delivered over 30% Total Shareholder Return (TSR), while Michelin underperformed with a -37% return due to weak commercial markets [3][20]. - 2026 Projections: - The sector is expected to see EBIT margins increase year-over-year for the first time since 2021, with cash returns anticipated to rise across all players [4][21][27]. - Michelin's adjusted EBIT margin is projected to be 12.0% in 2026, ahead of consensus estimates [31][36]. Risks and Opportunities - Risks: - Potential slower recovery in weak segments, governance disputes, and the risk of disappointing sales prices for assets like ContiTech [35][60]. - Opportunities: - The premiumisation trend in the tyre market is expected to continue, providing growth potential for companies like Michelin and Pirelli [6][50]. Additional Insights - Market Dynamics: The tyre industry is characterized by high EBIT margins (15-20%) and a significant portion of revenue coming from the aftermarket, which limits cyclicality [6][23]. - Valuation Methodology: The report suggests that the market will sustain higher multiples for the sector, with 8-9x EBIT being justified based on historical performance [5][22]. Conclusion - The tyre industry is positioned for growth in 2026, with key players like Michelin, Bridgestone, and Pirelli expected to benefit from structural tailwinds and improved financial performance. The resolution of governance issues and continued premiumisation will be critical for unlocking value in the sector [19][50].