中国房地产：官方楼市叙事是否出现转向-China Property_ Is this a shift in official housing market narrative_

Summary of China Property Conference Call Industry Overview - The commentary from Qiushi, the official magazine of the CCP, suggests a potential shift in the official narrative regarding the housing market in China for 2026, following a lack of meaningful policy in 2025 [1][3] - The housing market has been experiencing deteriorating home prices and sales since the second half of 2025, prompting speculation about new policy directions [1][3] Key Messages from Qiushi Commentary 1. Supply/Demand Dynamics: There has been a significant shift in the supply and demand dynamics within the real estate market [3][20] 2. Importance of Real Estate: The sector remains vital to the national economy and household wealth, accounting for 13% of GDP and employing over 70 million people [21][22] 3. Urbanization Support: Urbanization and demand for housing upgrades are expected to continue supporting market demand [3][21] 4. Transition in Development Model: The traditional high-leverage development model is deemed unsustainable, necessitating a transition to a new model [3][21] 5. Policy Coordination: Policymakers are urged to provide decisive and coordinated support, with a call for policies to be introduced all at once rather than piecemeal [3][4][25] 6. Supply Control: There is a need for well-controlled supply management to stabilize the market [3][26] 7. Expectation Management: The government must strengthen information management to counter misinformation and monitor key industry indicators [3][27] Market Performance and Forecasts - The real estate sector has consistently underperformed since 2021, with a forecasted 7% drop in sales and a 5% decline in home prices for 2026 under the base case scenario [1][3] - In 2025, national sales value dropped by 11% year-over-year, while the top 100 developers saw an 18% decline [5][20] - The MSCI China Real Estate index rose by 1% in 2025, marking the first positive return since the liquidity crisis in 2021, but underperformed relative to MSCI China by 28% [5][10] Tactical Investment Insights - Top Picks: - CR Land (1109 HK): Emerging as the largest commercial asset manager with attractive valuations [5][6] - CR Mixc (1209 HK): Expected to see tenant sales growth of 5-10% in 2026 [5][6] - Jinmao (817 HK): Notable for positive sales growth of 16% in 2025 [5][6] - Longfor (960 HK): Considered a tactical play with potential upside amid policy-induced rallies [5][6] Conclusion - The commentary from Qiushi indicates a potential shift in policy direction for the housing market, with a focus on decisive and coordinated support to stabilize the sector. The current market conditions present both risks and opportunities for investors, particularly in selected stocks that are well-positioned to benefit from any forthcoming policy changes [1][3][5]