当前时点如何看待PCB板块投资机遇

Summary of PCB Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The PCB market is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan, driven by increased shipments of Google's TPU and the 1.6T switch, leading to a rise in both volume and price. The orthogonal backplane is anticipated to start shipping by the end of 2026 or early 2027, contributing to new growth [1][2]. Key Demand Drivers - Demand growth in 2026 is primarily expected from Google, Nvidia, and the switch sector, with AI PCB demand projected to increase by over 200% due to the explosion of AIGC demand. The overall PCB market size is forecasted to surpass 100 billion yuan [2][3]. - Specific growth rates include: - Google: over 200% increase, mainly from increased shipment volumes - Amazon: approximately 90% growth - Nvidia: over 140% growth - Switch sector: 160% growth, significantly aided by new orthogonal backplane technology [3][4]. Major Suppliers and Capacity Expansion - Key players in the PCB industry include Shenghong, Gudian, and Taiwan Lianeng. New entrants in the GB300 sector include Fangzheng and Jingwang, increasing the number of potential suppliers from four or five to seven or eight [5]. - Current suppliers for Google and Amazon include ICU, Mirror Electric, and Hudean Shenlan, with potential new suppliers like Shenghong, Chaoyi, Pengling, and Dongshan Jinhwang, bringing the total number of suppliers for Google to around nine and for Amazon to about eight [5]. Foreign Manufacturers' Capacity Expansion - Foreign manufacturers such as Taiwan's Xinxing, Jinxiang Electric, Korea's ASU, and the US's TTM are expanding capacity at a relatively slow pace. For instance, ICU plans to increase capacity by only 10%, while Xinxing and TTM have insufficient capital expenditures. Mirror Electric's Suzhou factory shows some supply potential with a 25% increase in capital expenditure, but overall expansion remains slow [6]. Investment Logic and Focus Companies - The investment strategy remains focused on leading companies while also looking for emerging players that can achieve breakthroughs. Key areas of interest include shipments related to Google's TPU V7/V8 chips and Amazon's chips, as well as Nvidia's orthogonal solution testing phase [7][8]. - Notable companies to watch include Shenghong, Hudean, Dongshan, and Shengyi Technology, along with emerging firms like Pengding, Fangzheng, and Jingwang [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The AI PCB market is expected to see significant growth by 2026, but supply will still be insufficient to meet demand. By 2027, as most capacity comes online, the supply-demand relationship may balance or even lead to oversupply. However, until the end of 2026, the market is expected to remain in a state of supply shortage [9].