镍供需格局分析与展望

Summary of Nickel Market Analysis and Outlook Industry Overview - The nickel market is heavily influenced by Indonesia, which has a significant demand of at least 300 million tons annually, projected to reach 320 million tons by 2026. Without policy changes, a global supply shortage is expected, driving up nickel prices [1][2]. - Currently, the global nickel market is in a state of oversupply, with surpluses of 120,000 tons in 2025 and 150,000 tons in 2026, primarily due to the large-scale production capacities established by Chinese enterprises in Indonesia [1][3]. Key Insights - Indonesia dominates the global nickel supply chain, producing approximately 185,000 tons of NPI (Nickel Pig Iron), accounting for about half of global production. The country is also expanding its wet processing projects, which will add 700,000 tons of MHP (Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate) capacity between 2026 and 2027, further increasing supply pressure [1][4][5]. - China's electrolytic nickel capacity has significantly increased, surpassing 600,000 tons, while Indonesia plans to increase its electrolytic aluminum capacity to 200,000 tons by the end of 2027, positioning itself among the top three global producers [1][6]. - The growth rate of stainless steel demand in China has slowed from nearly 10% to 3-5%, leading to the accelerated exit of high-cost NPI capacities. New smelting facilities are primarily being established in India, indicating a profound impact of the global economic environment on the nickel supply chain [1][7]. Market Dynamics - Recent increases in nickel prices are largely attributed to the reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, which are expected to drop from 360 million tons in 2025 to 250 million tons in 2026, creating a significant supply-demand gap [2][10]. - The Indonesian government aims to maintain nickel prices between $15,000 and $20,000 to ensure profitability for downstream enterprises and attract investment while avoiding excessively high prices that could lead to production halts [1][21]. Cost and Production Insights - The cost of nickel production through Indonesian pyrometallurgical methods is approximately $10,000 to $11,000 per ton, with profits remaining limited despite recent price increases. Many companies relying on purchased ore are still operating at a loss [11]. - The cost of wet nickel refining is influenced by rising sulfur prices, which have increased by approximately $400 per ton, raising overall production costs by about $4,000. The total cost for wet nickel refining remains between $8,000 and $10,000 per ton [12][13]. Future Projections - The Indonesian government is expected to maintain a cautious approach to quota policies, with any changes likely to have significant impacts on the global market due to Indonesia's dominant supply position [16]. - If the government sets the annual quota at 300 million tons, it may achieve a near balance by importing additional nickel ore from the Philippines. However, if the quota is set at 250 million tons, it may not meet domestic demand [20]. Conclusion - The nickel market is facing a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, heavily influenced by Indonesian policies and production capacities. The outlook suggests potential price volatility driven by quota adjustments and global economic conditions, particularly in China’s real estate and infrastructure sectors, which could impact traditional demand growth [23].