核能_能源-铀浓缩公司（UEC）、低浓铀（LEU）参与的核燃料链小组会要点_ Nuclear_ Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference — Takeaways from Nuclear Fuel Chain Panel with UEC, LEU

Summary of Conference Call on Nuclear Energy Sector Industry Overview - The conference focused on the nuclear energy sector, specifically discussing the uranium market and its dynamics, featuring presentations from Uranium Energy Corp (UEC) and Centrus Energy Corp (LEU) at the 2026 Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech & Utilities conference in Miami, FL on January 7th [1][2]. Key Points from Uranium Energy Corp (UEC) Market Outlook - UEC identifies a structural supply deficit in the uranium market, with demand projected at approximately 200 million pounds versus production of about 160-165 million pounds by 2025 [2]. - The deficit is expected to widen due to increasing demand from new reactor announcements and potential new reactor builds, including small modular reactors [2]. - Recent government funding support for the nuclear industry is seen as a catalyst for increased demand, while muted supply expansion and current pricing are not incentivizing significant supply growth [2]. Policy and Strategy - UEC has adopted a strategy to build inventory rather than sell in the spot market, maintaining an unhedged position against current uranium prices [3]. - The company holds approximately 2 million pounds of existing inventory and is positioned to support the US government amid the ongoing Section 232 investigation, which could lead to a domestic pricing premium [3][5]. Conversion Capabilities - UEC is developing conversion capabilities through its subsidiary, Uranium Refining and Conversion LLC, to reduce reliance on Converdyn, the only domestic uranium conversion facility [6]. - The company has raised $200 million to accelerate these capabilities and plans to provide updates on progress within the next 6-12 months [6]. Key Points from Centrus Energy Corp (LEU) Market Outlook - LEU expresses concerns over insufficient domestic enrichment capacity to meet future demand, especially with the impending ban on Russian uranium imports by the end of 2027 [7]. - The company highlights the need for increased domestic capacity due to potential investigations into China circumventing policies related to uranium imports [7]. Capacity and Funding - LEU has launched commercial centrifuge manufacturing operations and was awarded $900 million from the Department of Energy (DOE) to support capacity expansion [8]. - This funding is a grant, not a loan, and will be used alongside LEU's investments and potential partnerships [8]. - The company aims to complete its manufacturing facility in Oak Ridge, TN, and expects to establish enrichment capacity by around 2029 [8]. Policy Considerations - LEU notes that a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could lead to increased enrichment capacity, but this is viewed as a risky supply source by utilities [9]. - The company is cautious about any reopening to Russian uranium, which could undermine taxpayer investments related to the $2.7 billion in DOE funding for domestic enrichment capacity [9]. Valuation and Risks - UEC is rated as a "Buy" with a 12-month price target of $16, based on a 35X EV/EBITDA multiple on F2028 EBITDA estimates [10]. - Key risks for UEC include volatility in uranium prices, uncertainty in production ramp timing, higher-than-expected production costs, and potential dilution from liquidity needs [11]. - LEU is not covered in the same manner as UEC, indicating a lack of investment rating or price target [11]. Additional Insights - The discussions highlighted the critical role of government policy and funding in shaping the future of the nuclear energy sector, particularly in the context of domestic production and supply chain security [2][3][8][9]. - The emphasis on building domestic capabilities reflects a broader trend towards energy independence and security in the face of geopolitical uncertainties [7][9].