全球机会资产定位器_2026 年展望_“金发女孩” 式循环 - 新顺风、旧逆风_ Global Opportunity Asset Locator_ Outlook for 2026_ Goldilocks re-cycling - new tailwinds, old headwinds

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the macroeconomic outlook for 2026, focusing on global growth, inflation, and investment strategies across various asset classes, particularly equities and bonds [3][6][35]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Pro-Risk Stance: The company maintains a modestly pro-risk outlook for 2026, supported by sturdy global growth, declining inflation, and ongoing policy support. However, it anticipates reduced tailwinds from monetary policy, with fiscal policy and regulatory easing becoming more prominent [3][6][35]. 2. Growth as a Driver: Growth is expected to be the primary driver of risk appetite in 2026, particularly in the first half of the year. This growth may exert upward pressure on bond yields, but sustained drag is not anticipated due to a benign inflation outlook and weak labor markets [3][6][35]. 3. Equity Performance: Equities are projected to perform well in an environment of better growth, policy easing, and falling inflation. However, elevated valuations may lead to lower risk-adjusted returns, necessitating a broader performance across sectors beyond just AI capital expenditures [3][7][11][12]. 4. Credit vs. Equities: The preference is for equities over credit, as credit total returns are constrained by tight spreads and less potential for rate relief. In contrast, equities can still deliver attractive returns driven by earnings growth [7][17]. 5. Bond Market Outlook: Bonds are expected to be a drag on multi-asset portfolios in the first half of 2026, with limited buffering capacity during equity drawdowns. The forecast for 10-year U.S. Treasury yields is in the range of 3.9% to 4.5% [14][17]. 6. Valuation Concerns: Elevated valuations are typical in late-cycle environments, with the S&P 500 Shiller P/E at levels reminiscent of previous market bubbles. This suggests that while macro conditions may remain favorable, the potential for significant equity rallies is limited [62][66]. 7. Recession Risks: The probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months is estimated at 30%, primarily due to a weak labor market. This increases the likelihood of equity drawdowns, particularly if negative growth shocks occur [81][86]. Additional Important Insights 1. Sector Preferences: The report highlights specific sector preferences, including a focus on cyclical stocks in the U.S. and Europe, and a tilt towards technology and financial services [12][19]. 2. Global Growth Forecasts: The company expects global GDP growth to be above consensus at 2.8% for 2026, with core inflation declining to 2.1% by year-end [36][35]. 3. AI Impact: The shift from AI capital expenditures to adoption is noted, which may keep labor markets weak but also drive productivity improvements [6][11]. 4. Commodities Outlook: The commodities market is expected to show mixed returns, with bullish sentiment towards precious metals and bearish views on energy prices [19][20]. 5. Investment Strategy: The report emphasizes the importance of diversification across regions, sectors, and styles to enhance risk-adjusted returns, particularly in light of high valuations and concentrated equity markets [9][11]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the company's outlook and strategic recommendations for 2026.