亚洲股票与主题策略：适应范式重塑的稳健投资组合-Asia Equity & Thematic Strategy Robust Portfolios for Reshaping Paradigms

Summary of Key Points from the Investor Presentation Industry Overview - The Asia Pacific region is undergoing significant changes in growth and corporate strategies, as well as reforms in capital markets to enhance competitiveness in emerging technologies and multipolar supply chains [1][4]. Core Views and Recommendations - Market Positioning: The company recommends maintaining tight market-risk positions relative to benchmarks, with a slight preference for Japan over emerging markets (EM) in 2026 [7]. - Country Allocations: - Small Overweights (OWs) are suggested for India, Brazil, UAE, and Singapore. - Underweights (UWs) are recommended for Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Taiwan [7]. - China Outlook: The company holds a moderately constructive view on China with an Equal Weight (EW) recommendation, but does not anticipate significant reflation until 2027 [7]. Thematic Insights - The top thematic focus areas identified include: - AI Path in China - Diabesity Ecosystem - AI & Healthcare [7]. Earnings and Valuations - Earnings Projections: - The base-case earnings for the TOPIX index are projected to be ¥185 (+9%) for F3/25, ¥198 (+7%) for F3/26, and ¥225 (+14%) for F3/27 [8][12]. - The consensus EPS for the same periods is ¥188 (+10%), ¥201 (+7%), and ¥223 (+11%) [12]. - Valuation Targets: - The TOPIX index is currently at 3,538 with a target of 3,600 for December 2026, reflecting a 2% increase [8]. - The MSCI EM index is at 1,467 with a target of 1,400, indicating a -5% outlook [8]. Market Performance Rankings - The performance rankings for various countries from 2016 to 2026 show Japan consistently leading, followed by Hong Kong and India, with significant fluctuations in other markets like Brazil and South Africa [9]. Forward P/E Ratios - The forecasted 12-month forward P/E ratios are: - Japan: 15.0x - Emerging Markets: 13.0x - China: 12.7x [17]. Additional Insights - The company emphasizes the importance of considering potential conflicts of interest in its research, as it engages in business with covered companies [5]. - The earnings estimate revisions for various markets indicate a mixed outlook, with Japan showing positive growth while other regions like India and Australia face downward revisions [19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the investor presentation, highlighting the strategic focus on Asia Pacific markets and the anticipated trends in earnings and valuations.