美国经济- 增长加快 + 失业率下降意味着美联储降息会推迟-US Economics-Faster growth and a lower unemployment rate mean Fed cuts come later

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US economic outlook, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and employment trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: The expectation for additional rate cuts from the Federal Reserve has been pushed to June and September 2026, from earlier predictions of January and April. This change is based on the belief that rate cuts will occur only when tariff pass-through is complete and inflation is decreasing [1][8][30]. 2. Economic Growth Forecast: The growth outlook for 2026 has been revised upward to 2.4% from a previous estimate of 1.8%. This adjustment reflects stronger incoming economic data [8][23]. 3. Unemployment Rate Trends: The unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in December, with November's rate revised down to 4.5%. Despite soft labor demand, a stable or declining unemployment rate suggests that labor supply growth is slowing in line with labor demand [3][29]. 4. Private Employment Growth: Private employment growth remains weak, with only 29,000 jobs added on a three-month moving average. This indicates ongoing challenges in the labor market [3][29]. 5. Consumer Spending: Consumer spending on services has shown resilience, increasing by 3.5% in the third quarter. This trend is expected to continue, as spending on services tends to be more stable compared to durable goods [16][17]. 6. Trade Deficit: The trade deficit was reported at -$29.4 billion in October, with a notable decline in real imports, reflecting adjustments from earlier front-loading of imports [11][30]. 7. Tariff Rates: The effective tariff rate is expected to rise to approximately 16.0% due to ongoing trade negotiations and tariff implementations. This rate is projected to stabilize around 15-16% by the end of 2025 [34][35]. 8. Shipping Volumes: High-frequency container traffic has decreased significantly after a surge earlier in the year, indicating a reversal in import trends [39][40]. Additional Important Insights 1. Productivity Growth: There has been a notable increase in productivity growth, recorded at 4.9% quarter-over-quarter, although the reasons behind this acceleration remain unclear [18][24]. 2. K-Shaped Recovery: The report highlights a K-shaped recovery in consumer behavior, where higher-income households are driving new car purchases, accounting for 43% of sales, while lower-income households' share has decreased [17]. 3. GDP Tracking: The GDP tracking estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025 has been adjusted to 2.2%, indicating a more positive outlook than previously anticipated [22][50]. 4. Federal Budget Balance: The report notes a federal budget balance of -$173.3 billion for December, reflecting ongoing fiscal challenges [62]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and expectations for the future.