中国 - 经济-开年靠基建，实体需求弱

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, particularly the infrastructure and consumer sectors, highlighting the current economic conditions and projections for 2026 [2][3][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - Infrastructure Investment: - Public infrastructure spending is expected to support a GDP growth of approximately 5% in the first quarter of 2026, driven by early fiscal support and increased local government bond issuance [3][9]. - Central budget investment for infrastructure has been set at 2,950 billion RMB, up from 2,000 billion RMB the previous year [9][12]. - Local government bond issuance plans for the first quarter have increased to 6,650 billion RMB from 4,220 billion RMB in the previous year, indicating a more aggressive approach to funding infrastructure projects [9][12]. - Weak Consumer Demand: - Consumer spending remains weak, particularly in the real estate sector, with expectations of further declines in consumption growth due to a lack of strong incentives and ongoing property price declines [3][11][25]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain weak, reflecting insufficient demand in the market [10][11]. - Government Subsidy Policies: - The government plans to maintain a similar scale of subsidies for consumer goods in 2026, estimated at around 300 billion RMB, but with a smoother distribution throughout the year [3][11][25]. - Changes in subsidy policies include a reduction in the number of categories eligible for subsidies in the home appliance sector, from 12 to 6, and adjustments in the maximum subsidy amounts for vehicles and appliances [25][9]. Additional Important Insights - Economic Activity Trends: - Economic activity showed signs of rebound at the end of 2025, but growth is expected to slow down in the second quarter of 2026 due to persistent weaknesses in the housing market and consumer spending [3][11]. - The report indicates that inflationary pressures are expected to remain subdued, with a cautious outlook on recent CPI and PPI data reflecting ongoing supply-demand imbalances [10][11]. - Future Monitoring Points: - Key areas to watch in the coming months include the pace of local government bond issuance for infrastructure, the implementation of subsidy policies, and the performance of consumer spending during the Spring Festival [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy, particularly in infrastructure investment and consumer behavior.