化工馏分_年初锂价上涨_ICIS 2026 展望：大宗商品相关价值链-Chemical Distillate Lithium Run-Up to Start the Year ICIS Outlook 26 on Value Chains Relevant to Commodity

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Lithium Market: Lithium prices have increased significantly at the start of 2026, with lithium carbonate (battery-grade) prices rising approximately 14% year-to-date (YTD) to around $17,000 per ton excluding VAT, and lithium hydroxide prices increasing about 19% YTD to approximately $15,000 per ton excluding VAT. This bullish sentiment has positively impacted Albemarle Corporation (ALB) shares, which are up about 14% YTD despite a strong rally in the second half of 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Insights - Supply Chain Dynamics: Downstream cathode manufacturers are currently stockpiling, with inventory levels at approximately 36,500 tons, the lowest since March 2025. The expected restart of CATL's Jianxiawo mine has been delayed to around the Chinese New Year in February 2026, contributing to supply-side volatility. The overall supply-demand setup for lithium is expected to tighten favorably in 2026, which should benefit ALB through better pricing support and improved cycle dynamics [2][3]. - Polyethylene (PE) Outlook: ICIS forecasts a slight increase in feedstock costs for polyethylene, rising from approximately 15.5 cents per pound to about 18.1 cents per pound year-over-year. The U.S. and Canada will maintain a cost advantage, although the gap will narrow. Global PE capacity is expected to expand by about 8 million metric tons this year, which is roughly double the incremental demand [3][4]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Market: New production capacity added in late 2024 has increased U.S. PVC production by around 6%. Domestic sales remained flat through 2025, prompting producers to manage supply-demand imbalances. Westlake Chemical (WLK) has rationalized about 15% of its global PVC capacity, which represents approximately 5% of U.S. PVC nameplate capacity. Export prices are under pressure due to increased competition, particularly from China [6][7]. - Propylene and Polypropylene (PP) Trends: Demand for propylene derivatives is expected to improve seasonally, but high inventory levels will take time to normalize. Contract prices for propylene are projected to remain stable in 2026 unless there is a significant supply disruption. The U.S. polypropylene market is anticipated to mirror the second half of 2025, with high inventories and modest demand fluctuations [7][8]. Additional Noteworthy Developments - SABIC Divestitures: SABIC announced the divestiture of its European petrochemical business to AEQUITA for an enterprise value of approximately $500 million. This acquisition is expected to synergize with AEQUITA's existing olefins and polyolefins business [11]. - Joint Ventures in Biofuels: Corteva (CTVA) and BP have formed a joint venture named Etlas, aimed at producing biofuel feedstock from crops, targeting an output of 1 million metric tons per annum by the mid-2030s, with initial supply expected to begin in 2027 [11]. - BASF's Renewable Energy Initiative: BASF has commissioned a 1 million metric ton ethylene cracker at its Verbund site in Zhanjiang, China, which will be the first to operate using 100% renewable energy for its main compressors [11]. - Market Performance: The S&P 500 has shown a year-to-date increase of 0.9%, while various chemical companies have reported mixed performances, with ALB up 10% and WLK up 7.3% [35]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments from the conference call, focusing on the lithium market, chemical industry dynamics, and notable corporate actions.