专题研究：不在涨跌里，不在规模里，在结构里： 2025年ABS盘点和思考

Summary of the ABS Market Research Report for 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) market in China, highlighting its growth and structural changes in 2025. The ABS market expanded under low interest rates and asset scarcity, achieving a record high in primary issuance over the past four years, with a total issuance of 22.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase [5][9][12]. Key Insights Market Dynamics - The core logic of the ABS market has shifted from scale expansion to structural upgrades, with consumer finance (泛消金) maintaining a dominant position, accounting for approximately 30% of the market [5][9]. - The issuance of holding-type real estate ABS (机构间 REITs) surged, driven by regulatory support and strong demand from both asset holders and investors, increasing by 407% year-on-year to 53.8 billion yuan [5][9][38]. - NPL (Non-Performing Loans) and other niche assets also showed significant growth, with NPL issuance reaching 82 billion yuan, a 61% increase [5][9][51]. Asset Structure Changes - The underlying assets have evolved from "standardized and singular" to "diversified and scenario-based," with new products emerging, such as data asset ABS and green ABS related to public rental housing and photovoltaic power generation [5][6]. - The ABS market is expected to continue expanding in volume while presenting differentiation, with real estate, consumer finance, and NPL being key focus areas [6][76]. Product and Investment Trends - The product structure and terms have become increasingly rich and optimized, with a growing trend of using bank guarantees and third-party guarantees to enhance credit [6][9]. - In a volatile market environment, ABS has emerged as an important diversification option due to its asset resilience and low volatility characteristics [6][9]. Important but Overlooked Aspects - The report emphasizes the importance of structural design optimization, quality asset selection, and transaction terms negotiation as sources of investment opportunities, rather than merely focusing on duration or yield spread [6][76]. - The report also highlights the potential for ABS to serve as a crucial link between fixed income, defensive attributes, and alternative returns in multi-asset allocations [6][79]. Risks - The report identifies risks such as statistical errors in data and market volatility, which could impact the ABS market [7]. Future Outlook - For 2026, the ABS market is anticipated to deepen its growth logic from scale expansion to structural enhancement, aligning with national strategies to promote high-quality development in the bond market and stimulate domestic demand [76][79]. - The report suggests that holding-type real estate ABS will continue to thrive, supported by regulatory backing and active participation from asset holders and investors [76][77]. - Consumer finance ABS is expected to solidify its market position, while NPL ABS will enhance the market-oriented disposal mechanism for non-performing assets, contributing to improved asset quality for financial institutions [76][78]. Conclusion - The ABS market in 2025 has shown robust growth and significant structural changes, with various asset types and innovative products emerging. The focus on optimizing structures and enhancing credit quality will be crucial for future developments in the ABS landscape.