大摩闭门会-2026-亚洲科技硬件行业展望

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The overall outlook for the Asian technology hardware industry in 2026 is positive, particularly in the AI sector, with the AIGC market expected to reach $55 billion by 2029, significantly boosting revenues for companies like TSMC [2][3] - Non-AI segments such as the smartphone and PC markets are facing challenges, with the Chinese Android smartphone market projected to decline by 8-10% and the PC market expected to drop by approximately 10% [2][3] Memory Market Insights - The memory market is anticipated to perform well in 2026, with DRAM prices expected to rise by 50-60% quarter-over-quarter in Q1, and a potential annual price increase of around 20% [3][4] - DRAM order fulfillment rates are currently about 50%, while NAND fulfillment rates are between 60-70%, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [4] - There is significant potential for EPS and profit upgrades in memory stocks due to the upward price trends [4] HBM Market Developments - HBM4 is expected to receive NVIDIA certification around March and begin mass production by the end of Q1 or early Q2 [5] - Samsung plans to increase its HBM4 production capacity from 180K to between 200K and 250K, reflecting optimism in the HBM4 market [5] AI Sector Growth - The development of GPU and ASIC technologies in the AI field is promising, with NVIDIA making rapid technological advancements and minimal inventory concerns [6] - MediaTek anticipates producing 400,000 TPUs in 2026 and scaling up to 5 million units by 2027, alongside an upward revision of ADAS forecasts [6] OSAT Company Outlook - OSAT companies like Moonlight and KYC are expected to benefit from increased demand for AI semiconductors, with Moonlight planning a price increase of 5-20% [7] - KYC's capital expenditures remain strong, potentially exceeding last year's levels [7] Investment Recommendations - Samsung Electronics is recommended for memory stocks due to its aggressive pricing strategy and advantages in HBM [8] - In the ASIC sector, MediaTek, LGE, and GUC are favored, while OSAT companies Moonlight and KYC are also seen as strong investment opportunities [8] Company Guidance Expectations - TSMC is expected to provide a mid-year growth guidance of 20% in the upcoming earnings call, with potential for stock price increases if actual guidance exceeds expectations [8][9] - AI semiconductor business growth estimates may be revised from 45% to 60% based on global market models [8] Display Industry Insights - The display industry outlook has been upgraded to Overweight, with improvements in TV panel order momentum due to early promotional activities ahead of major events [10] - TV panel prices are expected to rise by an average of 1% in January, with stability in IT panel prices and slight increases in monitor prices [10] eInk Industry Evaluation - The eInk rating has been downgraded to Equal-weight due to a lack of strong catalysts in the short term, despite long-term growth potential in applications like electronic shelf labels [11] Company Performance Highlights - Apple reported better-than-expected revenue in December, with growth in its Switch business, while BizLink's revenue grew by 7% in Q4, exceeding expectations [13][19] - TSMC's reduction in resources for mature processes may benefit companies like Vanger in the long term [14][15] MediaTek's Progress - MediaTek is working on manufacturing TPU chips for Google, with testing expected around the Lunar New Year, facing challenges primarily related to ABF substrate shortages [16] L Chip and Marvell Collaboration - L chip is expected to dominate the bottom fan design in 2023, with positive developments anticipated in partnerships despite some controversies [17][18] Global Uniqlo Highlights - Global Uniqlo's ARM architecture CPU will see large-scale application in Google server systems, and collaborations with Tesla in AI design services are expected to yield significant revenue growth [19]