外资交易台：市场宏观周末思绪。 --- Weekend Thoughts_

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Global equities have reached all-time highs, with notable performances in various sectors: - US Momentum Long index up 15% YTD - Pre-Profit Tech stocks up 12% YTD - Meme stocks increased by 5% in the past week - CSI1000 index has risen for 7 consecutive sessions - KOSPI up 9% YTD after a 76% increase last year - Gold prices continue to rise, and credit spreads are narrowing [2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - Market sentiment is positive, with a strong appetite for risk [4] - Global funds have reduced their exposure, leading to the fastest net selling of equities in over 8 months, particularly in the US and China [4] - The outlook for 2026 remains optimistic, driven by different growth factors compared to 2025, including AI capital expenditures and dovish Federal Reserve expectations [6][7] - Portfolio diversification is emphasized as a key strategy, with tactical hedges recommended due to the current macro conditions being perceived as too comfortable [11][13] Regional Equity Insights - The report suggests a modest pro-risk stance with an overweight (OW) position in equities across various regions: - OW in MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan, S&P 500, TOPIX, and select commodities [18] - Emerging markets (EM) are viewed as having better risk-reward profiles compared to the S&P 500 [21] - European equities are trading at a significant discount compared to US peers, indicating potential alpha themes to watch [29] - Asia is expected to maintain a similar trajectory, with regional EPS growth projected at 19% for this year and 12% for 2027 [32] Specific Country Insights - China, Korea, and India are recommended for overweight positions, while Japan is downgraded to market weight due to valuation concerns [33][41] - India's market is anticipated to recover after a significant underperformance last year, with foreign institutional investors showing renewed interest [43] - Valuation premiums for China have narrowed significantly, indicating a potential shift in investment dynamics [45] Additional Considerations - The upcoming earnings season is expected to show a 7% growth, which is considered a low bar to surpass, with a focus on the acceleration of growth in subsequent quarters [22] - Retail investor enthusiasm is rising, with margin balances hitting new highs, suggesting a longer "Spring Stir" window due to the later-than-usual Chinese New Year [39] - The report highlights the importance of continued momentum in China for the overall Asian market outlook [36][37]