中国互联网调研纪要：AI、云、宏观竞争与监管-China Internet Internet Tour Takeaways AI Cloud Macro Competition Regulation-China Internet

Summary of Key Takeaways from China Internet Tour Industry Overview - Industry: China Internet - Key Focus Areas: AI, Cloud, Macro Environment, Competition, Regulation Core Insights 1. Ecommerce Growth: Soft consumption sentiment has negatively impacted ecommerce growth in the second half of Q4 2025, with expectations of continued muted macro conditions into 2026 [1][14] 2. Regulatory Impact: Tightening regulations and the implementation of ecommerce VAT are expected to affect the profitability of smaller merchants, which will, in turn, weigh on ecommerce platform monetization and margins [1][15] 3. AI Cloud Demand: Demand for AI cloud services remains robust, although supply constraints may gradually ease due to advancements in domestic chip production and selective approvals of high-end foreign chips [1][14] 4. Competitive Landscape: The competition in food delivery, quick commerce, and AI chatbots is intense, with increased promotional spending likely to further pressure profitability and margins [1][14] 5. International Expansion: Companies are increasingly focusing on overseas markets for robotaxi services, AI applications, and IDC buildout, moving beyond previous focuses on gaming and cross-border commerce [1] Company-Specific Highlights Alibaba (BABA) 1. GMV Growth Pressure: Macro conditions and a high base have pressured GMV growth, alongside a lapse of 0.6% fee/QZT benefit [2] 2. Strategic Investments: Management reiterated commitment to strategic investments in food delivery and quick commerce, aiming to increase volume and GMV market share in 2026 [2] 3. Cloud Revenue Growth: Strong demand for cloud infrastructure is expected to sustain high growth levels with stable margins [2] 4. AI Integration: Progress in user penetration of Qwen-Max-3 and future integration with Taobao and other Alibaba ecosystem components were highlighted [2] JD.com (JD) 1. Macro Softness: Similar to Alibaba, JD management noted macro softness and a high base affecting trade-in programs, with expectations of recovery in 2026 [3] 2. Food Delivery Investment: Continued investment in food delivery is seen as crucial for user growth and cross-selling synergies [3] 3. General Merchandise Demand: Despite macro challenges, demand for general merchandise remains solid, with growth momentum expected to continue into 2026 [3] Baidu 1. AI and Cloud Demand: Management emphasized strong demand for AI and cloud services, with AI-related revenues accounting for 40% of total core revenues in Q3 2025 [7] 2. Spin-off Plans: Commitment to improving disclosure of AI-related metrics and enhancing shareholder returns through the proposed spin-off of Kunlunxin was reiterated [7] Didi 1. Volume Growth: Management expects to maintain over 8% volume growth in China for 2026 despite macro headwinds [8] 2. International Expansion: Didi is committed to becoming a sustainable second player in Brazil, with significant investments in food delivery [8] Trip.com (TCOM) 1. Travel Booking Performance: Travel booking volume remained decent during New Year 2026, with expectations for hotel ADR stabilization [9] Full Truck Alliance (YMM) 1. Order Volume Growth: Anticipated slowdown in order volume growth to 12% in Q4 2025, with recovery expected in 2026 [10] Kanzhun 1. Recruitment Recovery: Continued recovery in recruitment sentiment, particularly in sectors like internet and healthcare, with growth momentum expected to sustain into 2026 [12] Bilibili (BILI) 1. Ad Performance: Advertising performance is on track, with expectations for decent momentum into 2026 driven by performance ads [13] Additional Insights 1. Ecommerce VAT Impact: JD.com is expected to be least affected by ecommerce VAT due to its large proportion of sales from 1P and large brands, while PDD and Kuaishou may face greater challenges [15] 2. Investment Commitments: Both Alibaba and JD are committed to high levels of investment spending, which may pressure profitability in 2026 [15] 3. AI Competition: The competition in AI infrastructure and models is intensifying, with Baidu's neutral position and Kunlun's compatibility with CUDA seen as advantages [14][15] Conclusion - The China internet sector is facing challenges from macroeconomic conditions and regulatory changes, but there are opportunities in AI and cloud services. Companies are focusing on strategic investments and international expansion to navigate these challenges and drive growth into 2026 [14]