舜宇光学：2026 年手机业务预期下调，非手机业务保持强劲

Summary of Sunny Optical Technology Group Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382.HK) - Established: 1984 - Business Segments: 1. Optical components (DC lens, handset lens, vehicle lens) 2. Optoelectronic products (handset camera modules) 3. Optical instruments (microscopic and analytical instruments) [24][25] Industry Insights - Handset Market: Anticipated decline in global handset camera lens shipment by 4% in 2026, following a 2% increase in 2025, due to a forecasted 5% decrease in global smartphone shipments [3][14] - Vehicle Lens Market: Strong demand in Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) contributing to a 27% year-over-year growth in vehicle lens shipments [2] Financial Performance - December 2025 Shipments: - Handset Camera Modules (HCM): 37.7 million units (-29.3% YoY, -9.0% MoM) - Handset Lens Sets (HLS): 95.6 million units (-8.9% YoY, -20.0% MoM) - Vehicle Lens Sets (VLS): 7.5 million units (+17.7% YoY, -40.8% MoM) [2] - Earnings Estimates: - 2026 earnings estimates lowered by 11% and 2027 by 3% due to handset market headwinds [7] - Target price adjusted from HK$103 to HK$91 based on a 23x historical average P/E [5][7] Key Financial Metrics - Net Profit: - 2023: RMB 1,099 million - 2024: RMB 2,699 million - 2025E: RMB 3,482 million - 2026E: RMB 3,948 million - 2027E: RMB 5,038 million [4] - Diluted EPS: - 2023: RMB 1.006 - 2024: RMB 2.470 - 2025E: RMB 3.187 - 2026E: RMB 3.613 - 2027E: RMB 4.611 [4] Investment Strategy - Rating: Maintain Buy rating due to strong non-handset business growth potential, which constitutes 50% of profits [7][25] - Growth Drivers: - Increased focus on vehicle lens, AI glasses, handheld cameras, and robotics [7] - Anticipated new smartphone models and product launches as near-term catalysts [7] Risks - Market Risks: - Slower-than-expected shipments of domestic-brand smartphones - High inventory levels in the smartphone supply chain impacting volume growth - Intensifying competition leading to potential gross margin erosion [27] Conclusion Sunny Optical is positioned to navigate challenges in the handset market while leveraging growth in non-handset segments. The company’s strategic focus on high-margin products and emerging technologies is expected to sustain its profitability despite market headwinds.