全球电池_美国数据中心拉动韩国电池需求，但纯电池企业估值偏高；买入 LG Chem_SDI-Global Batteries_ US data centers drive demand for Korean batteries, but pure play valuations are rich; Buy LG Chem_SDI

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the energy storage system (ESS) battery demand driven by surging US data center and AI power needs, with Korean battery manufacturers positioned to benefit from rising tariffs and localization requirements in the US market [1][2][3] Core Insights 1. US ESS Battery Demand Projections: - Demand forecasts for US ESS batteries are variable, with projections ranging from 100 GWh to 180 GWh by 2030. The current estimates lean towards the lower end due to conservative assumptions about peak demand growth and coal plant retirements [46][47] - The expectation is that battery storage will not fully close the surplus created by weak EV demand through 2028, despite some absorption of excess capacity through EV to ESS line conversions [47][67] 2. Battery Pricing Trends: - Global battery prices are expected to fall to US$87/kWh by 2026, but US prices will likely remain at least 15% higher than the global average due to labor and logistics costs [2][70][77] - The total cost of ownership (TCO) for US battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is projected to reach parity with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2028, delayed from previous estimates of 2026 [2][25][79] 3. European Market Dynamics: - European EV demand is recovering, but Chinese battery imports continue to exert downward pressure on costs, with Chinese exports being approximately 30% cheaper than Korean production costs [3][85] - The increasing penetration of Chinese OEMs in Europe is contributing to the growth of BEV sales, with market share rising from 0.2% in January 2024 to 4.2% in October 2025 [85][89] 4. Korean Battery Manufacturers' Strategies: - LG Energy Solution (LGES) is expected to lead in plant utilization by diversifying its product offerings and rapidly recalibrating its assets to meet ESS demand. The company aims to ramp up its LFP battery capacity significantly by the end of 2026 [9][103] - Other Korean manufacturers like Samsung SDI are also expected to benefit from robust growth in ESS shipments, despite facing challenges in the EV battery segment [9][11] Additional Important Insights - Tariffs and Subsidies: The AMPC and ITC incentives are crucial for maintaining cost competitiveness for domestic producers as volumes ramp up, potentially allowing the US battery market to move closer to balance by 2027 [47][64] - Market Surplus: A surplus of 80 GWh is anticipated by 2027, but this could be mitigated if high-end battery storage scenarios materialize [67][69] - Investment Recommendations: The report suggests a "Buy" rating for LG Chem and Samsung SDI, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating for LGES due to current valuations reflecting base case forecasts [9][11] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the battery industry, pricing trends, and strategic moves by major players in the market.