中国清洁技术_2026 年我们比市场共识更偏悲观的定价观点确定性增强-China Clean Tech_ Corporate day takeaway_ Higher conviction on our more bearish than consensus pricing view into 2026E

Summary of China Clean Tech Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the renewable energy sector in China, particularly the solar and wind industries, with discussions involving 12 renewable companies and two industry experts [1][2]. Key Insights Pricing Outlook - There is a bearish outlook on solar pricing into 2026, with expectations for further price hikes in the Poly and Module segments, projected to reach Rmb60-80/kg and Rmb0.74/W respectively, despite current spot prices being Rmb63/kg and Rmb0.685/W [2][3]. - The solar installation forecast for China is expected to decline by 17% year-over-year to 235GW in 2026, contrasting with the -10% to 0% guidance from solar companies [4][9]. Demand and Inventory Concerns - Downstream operators are showing low acceptance for price hikes due to a decline in renewable on-grid tariffs, leading to a cautious approach towards solar installations [3][13]. - There is a significant increase in inventory days, rising to 60 days in December 2025 from 30 days in September 2025, indicating potential cash burn across the industry [3][16]. Production and Cost Dynamics - Tier 1 solar players are planning to upgrade production lines to high-efficiency technologies, with expectations of reduced Poly usage in high-efficiency modules [16]. - The cost of production for modules has increased by Rmb0.3/W due to rising silver prices, but the adoption of cheaper metal technologies could offset some of these costs [16]. Regulatory Environment - The anti-monopoly campaign is expected to have a limited positive impact on pricing, as downstream players may still need to reduce selling prices to maintain shipments amid weak demand [7][19]. - Recent regulatory actions have targeted potential monopolistic practices within the Poly supply chain, requiring companies to submit rectification measures by January 20, 2026 [20]. Market Sentiment - There is a prevailing sentiment of caution among operators regarding price hikes, with many indicating a maximum tolerance of 5% increase in module prices due to declining tariffs [15]. - The industry is facing a negative demand cycle, which is deemed unsustainable, with expectations for R&D-driven cost reductions to consolidate the market towards Tier 1 players [11][16]. Additional Observations - The solar glass price has seen a decline of nearly 20% to Rmb10.5/sqm, with expectations of further reductions due to aggressive pricing strategies from Tier 2 players [23]. - The inventory management strategies of Tier 1 players are being tested, as they are currently tolerating higher inventory levels due to suspended capacities [24]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts discussed during the conference call, highlighting the challenges and dynamics within the Chinese renewable energy sector, particularly in solar energy.