SHREG(SZ:000803)2026-01-13 01:10Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and its significant growth potential, with demand expected to rise from 1.05 million tons in 2023 to 36.62 million tons by 2050, indicating a vast market opportunity [1][2] - The demand for Used Cooking Oil (UCO), a key raw material in the SAF supply chain, is projected to reach 2.33 million tons by 2030 and nearly 20 million tons by 2050 [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - The implementation of mandatory blending policies in the EU starting in 2025, increasing to 70% by 2050, alongside U.S. tax incentives, is expected to drive global demand for SAF [1][8] - Current SAF prices range from 15,000 to 17,000 RMB per ton, with projections suggesting UCO prices could rise to between 8,500 and 12,000 RMB per ton by 2030 due to increasing demand and limited supply [4][1] - China's current annual UCO utilization is about 4 million tons, supporting 250,000 to 300,000 tons of SAF production capacity, with a potential increase in demand for UCO as SAF production expands [3][14] Competitive Landscape - Companies like Shanhigh Environmental and Longkun Technology hold competitive advantages in the UCO sector due to their exclusive rights to urban kitchen waste projects, which are scarce and create barriers to entry [1][6] - Shanhigh Environmental is expected to double its production capacity in the next three years, with long-term profitability projected to exceed 400 million RMB even at conservative estimates [7][6] Policy and Market Dynamics - China has not yet implemented mandatory blending requirements but is piloting programs with plans to expand by 2025, indicating significant market potential [3][9] - The EU aims for a 6% SAF blending target by 2030, translating to a downstream demand of 3.14 million tons, while China has four companies certified for SAF production with a total export quota of 1.2 million tons [12][9] Price Trends and Supply-Demand Balance - Short-term supply may appear redundant due to a three-year production cycle, but overall supply-demand is expected to remain balanced [13] - Recent price spikes in SAF, with domestic prices reaching 2,450 USD/ton and EU prices between 2,600-2,900 USD/ton, reflect a year-on-year increase of 38% and 57%, respectively [13] Long-term Outlook - The transition from traditional biodiesel to higher-value SAF is expected to drive UCO price increases, with a significant shift in demand structure anticipated [15][5] - Companies with substantial UCO resources, such as Shanhigh Environmental and Longkun Technology, are positioned to capture more value in the supply chain as UCO prices rise [16][17]