重视油轮股的三点预期差

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The tanker industry has rebounded to approximately $70,000 levels since the beginning of the year, outperforming other sub-sectors in transportation in terms of fundamentals, stock prices, and freight rates [1][3]. - There is a significant expectation gap on the supply side, as new ship orders cannot fully compensate for the retirement of older vessels. Ships over 20 years old account for nearly 20%-25% of the fleet, while new orders only represent about 15% [1][4]. Supply Side Factors - The accelerated retirement of older vessels is primarily driven by increased compliance oil transport demand and stricter fuel emission economic requirements [1][4]. - The pressure from new shipbuilding is manageable and will not impose significant constraints on the future of the industry [1][4]. Demand Side Factors - On the demand side, there is also a notable expectation gap. The crude oil import volume is expected to maintain steady growth through 2025, indicating a stable recovery trend in tanker transport demand [1][5]. - The U.S. has intensified its crackdown on shadow teams, leading to a structural recovery in compliant market transport demand. The shift from the black market to the compliant market is anticipated to be a significant growth point for the tanker market over the next two years [1][5]. Geopolitical Impact - Geopolitical factors are crucial in influencing the tanker industry. Recent U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, Iran, and Russia have significantly impacted the black market, increasing risks associated with shadow teams and prompting some refiners to shift to compliant oil transport markets [1][6]. - The risk of war between the U.S. and Iran could lead to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, sharply increasing tanker rates. For instance, after the U.S. airstrike on Iran in June 2025, the CTPD rate surged from $25,000 to $60,000 per day [2][6]. Investment Recommendations - The company recommends investing in China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (招商轮船), which operates ultra-large crude carriers (LCC) and super mineral sand vessels (BLOC). This company is expected to benefit from the long-term oil cycle [7].