印度股票策略 -资产回报热潮-India Equity Strategy-Asset Returns Gold Rush

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Asset Class Performance: Gold was the best-performing asset class in 2025, with a return of 75%, significantly outperforming equities by 65 percentage points. Over the last five years, gold has consistently outperformed equities across multiple time frames, including 5, 10, 15, and 20 years [3][10][12]. Core Insights - Equities vs. Gold: An equal-weighted portfolio of gold and equities has compounded at 17% over the last five years, compared to 13% for equities and 21% for gold. The volatility of this portfolio is significantly lower than that of gold [4][10]. - Future Outlook for Equities: Indian equities are expected to reverse their relative underperformance, supported by policy changes that promote nominal growth. Current valuations suggest that equities are inexpensive compared to emerging markets and short rates [6][7]. - Long-term Growth in India: The long-term growth story for India is reinforced by various reforms, with a preference for domestic cyclicals over defensives and external-facing sectors. The recommendation is to overweight Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials while underweighting Energy, Materials, Utilities, and Healthcare [7][6]. Additional Important Insights - Physical vs. Financial Assets: The strong performance of gold has led to physical assets outperforming financial assets, particularly during periods of negative real rates. The gap between GDP growth and property prices has widened, suggesting a potential mean reversion for property prices in the coming years [5][6]. - Market Sentiment: Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) exposure in Indian equities remains at historical lows, while domestic demand remains strong, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [6]. Data Highlights - Performance Metrics: - Gold: 75% return in 2025, 21.6% CAGR over 5 years - Equities (BSE Sensex): 9.1% return in 2025, 14.6% CAGR over 20 years - Property: 5.2% return in 2025, 9.0% CAGR over 20 years [10][11]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the performance of asset classes, the outlook for Indian equities, and the implications of market dynamics.