全球宏观：2026 年 “PM 问答时间” 结果_ Global Strategy Conference_ Results of our 2026 'PM Question Time'

Key Takeaways from the Global Strategy Conference Industry Overview - The conference focused on global economic outlooks, equity strategies, and asset allocation trends for 2026, with a significant emphasis on emerging markets and geopolitical risks. Core Insights 1. Positive Economic Sentiment: The overall sentiment among participants was very positive, with strong economic activity and robust equity prices. There was a clear preference for diversification, particularly towards Emerging Markets [4][9]. 2. US GDP Growth Expectations: Over 80% of surveyed clients expect US GDP growth to be at or above the consensus of 2.1% for 2026, with a notable optimism reflected in the expectation of 2.8% growth from Goldman Sachs [9][12]. 3. Monetary Easing Anticipation: A strong consensus exists for monetary easing, with most respondents expecting rate cuts from the Federal Reserve averaging around 70 basis points, or approximately three cuts [9][19]. 4. Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical concerns have surged, with 65% of participants citing it as the biggest risk for 2026, a significant increase from previous years [9][41]. 5. Equity Market Outlook: A record 82% of respondents expect positive global equity returns in 2026, with 42% anticipating double-digit gains. This follows three consecutive years of strong performance for the MSCI AC World [9][48]. 6. Emerging Markets Preference: There is a growing preference for Asia ex-Japan and other Emerging Markets over the US, with expectations for India and China to be top picks for long-term investment opportunities [9][36]. 7. Sector Performance Expectations: Technology remains the top sector, but interest is also growing in Energy, Financials, and Industrials. A diversified approach is favored, with no single sector dominating [9][62]. 8. S&P 493 vs. Magnificent 7: Approximately 60% of respondents believe the broader S&P 493 will outperform the concentrated Magnificent 7, indicating a shift away from mega-cap dominance [9][63]. 9. Commodities Outlook: Commodities are gaining traction, with 35% of clients expecting them to outperform equities, a significant increase from previous years [9][68]. 10. Currency Expectations: Most clients expect the Euro to strengthen against the Dollar, with 37% anticipating the EUR/USD to end the year between 1.15 and 1.20 [9][84]. Additional Important Insights - Interest Rate Projections: Clients expect US 10-year yields to remain between 4% and 4.5%, with a slight bullish tilt towards lower yields compared to previous expectations [9][75]. - Investment in Emerging Markets: India remains the top pick for long-term investment among Emerging Markets, though its dominance is waning as interest in China rises significantly [9][36]. - Geopolitical Developments: The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like Venezuela and Taiwan, are expected to impact global markets significantly [9][32]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the Global Strategy Conference, highlighting the optimistic outlook for economic growth, equity markets, and the increasing focus on geopolitical risks and emerging markets.