应用软件：2026 年软件展望 -AI 从实验阶段转向预算落地North_America_Application_Software_2026_Software_Outlook_AI_Moves_From_Experiments_To_Budgets

Summary of the Conference Call on US Software Industry Outlook for 2026 Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the US Software industry, particularly the impact of AI on budgets and spending trends for 2026 [1][3][5]. Key Insights and Arguments 1. Budget Growth and IT Spending: - The 4Q25 CIO Survey indicates a significant acceleration in IT budget growth, with expectations of a +3.3% increase over the next 12 months, up from +1.9% in the previous quarter [3][18]. - There is a strong likelihood of a budget flush at the end of 2025, which is expected to positively impact companies like ServiceNow (NOW) and HubSpot (HUBS) [18][11]. 2. AI Demand and Capacity: - Demand for AI capabilities is anticipated to outpace current capacity, with a focus on scaling AI solutions within enterprises [5][23]. - The year 2025 was characterized by experimentation with AI, and 2026 is expected to see significant expansion in use cases that deliver high ROI [5][23]. 3. Company Ratings and Growth Drivers: - Zoom (ZM) and Palantir (PLTR) have been upgraded to Buy ratings due to improved growth visibility and strong catalysts [6][8]. - ZM is projected to achieve over 5% top-line growth, driven by its Contact Center and Custom AI Companion, while PLTR is expected to see a +51% year-over-year revenue growth, primarily from the US Commercial sector and government spending [8][9]. 4. Market Dynamics and Risks: - Despite the positive outlook for AI, there are ongoing concerns regarding the terminal value of application software, which may continue to pressure valuations [4][29]. - The software market is experiencing significant disruption risks from AI, particularly affecting traditional application vendors [29]. 5. Investment Priorities: - Data Analytics, Generative AI, and Data Warehousing have become the top investment priorities, reflecting the shift towards AI-driven solutions [18][26]. - Companies like Snowflake (SNOW), MongoDB (MDB), Microsoft (MSFT), and Oracle (ORCL) are favored for their AI capabilities and consumption models [26]. Additional Important Points - Performance Metrics: - The performance of various software companies in 2025 showed significant disparities, with PLTR achieving 147% sales growth, while others like HubSpot (HUBS) faced a decline of 43% [12][46]. - The overall sentiment indicates that while some companies are positioned well for growth, others are struggling with multiple compression and lower growth expectations [45][47]. - Future Expectations: - The environment for 2026 is expected to remain volatile, with a focus on growth in value, cyclical, and small/mid-cap names [30]. - Anticipated rate cuts in 2026 may positively impact software investments, particularly in AI, due to lower borrowing costs [34]. This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, highlighting the evolving landscape of the US Software industry as it adapts to AI advancements and changing budget dynamics.