JHCC(SZ:002484)2026-01-13 02:11Summary of Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co. (002484.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co. (002484.SZ) - Industry: Aluminum electrolytic capacitors and supercapacitors Key Points and Arguments Upgrade and Price Target - The company has been upgraded to a "Buy" rating from "Neutral" with a new target price (TP) of Rmb36.10, reflecting a 26% increase from the previous TP of Rmb28.60, indicating a potential upside of 20.2% from the current price of Rmb30.04 [1] Revenue and Income Forecasts - Sales and net income forecasts for 2026E-2030E have been revised upward by 6%-12% and 3%-11% respectively, driven by the anticipated demand for aluminum electrolytic capacitors from the AIDC sector [1] - AIDC aluminum electrolytic revenue is projected to grow from Rmb146 million in 2025E to Rmb479 million in 2026E and Rmb853 million by 2030E, increasing AIDC's share of the aluminum electrolytic segment to 9% in 2026E and 11% from 2027E to 2030E [1] Supercapacitor Market Insights - The ramp-up of supercapacitors has been slower than expected, but potential volume growth is anticipated to begin in the second half of 2026 [2] - The company expects to capture a market share of 5%-10% in EDLC and 2%-5% in LIC from 2025E to 2030E, with revenue projections of Rmb206 million for EDLC in 2026E and Rmb361 million in 2027E [2] - Pricing advantages are highlighted, with Jianghai's LIC expected to be over 30% cheaper than Musashi and even more competitive in EDLC compared to global peers [2] Earnings Growth - The company forecasts approximately 25% revenue growth and 36% EPS growth in 2026E, exceeding management's conservative targets [3] Financial Metrics - Key financial metrics include: - Revenue projections for 2026E at Rmb7,056.5 million, with EBITDA of Rmb1,343.8 million and EPS of Rmb1.18 [4] - The company is trading at a forward P/E of 28x, compared to a historical average of 23x, indicating potential for further upside as earnings momentum strengthens [16] Risks - Key downside risks include: 1. Lower-than-expected market share ramp for EDLC/LIC due to diverging customer preferences [17] 2. Uncertainty in the technological pathway between EDLC and LIC [18] 3. Delays in AIDC-driven contributions if hyperscaler architectures and qualification timelines shift [18] Investment Thesis - Jianghai is positioned as a leading supplier in aluminum electrolytic capacitors, with a strong industrial client base and vertical integration that enhances profitability [34] - The anticipated growth in AIDC adoption across EDLC and LIC is expected to drive market share sustainability and revenue growth [34] Additional Important Information - The company has a self-sufficiency rate of approximately 75% for formed foil, significantly higher than Japanese peers, providing a gross profit margin advantage of around 18% [34] - The stock's valuation methodology is based on a 25x P/E for 2028E, discounted back to 2026E with a cost of equity of 10.5% [35]