Envicool(SZ:002837)2026-01-13 02:11Summary of Shenzhen Envicool Technology (002837.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Shenzhen Envicool Technology (002837.SZ) - Industry: Precision cooling technology for data centers and servers Key Points and Arguments 1. Target Price Increase: The target price for Envicool has been raised to Rmb121.1, reflecting a 49.5% increase from the previous target of Rmb81.0, with an expected upside of 18.5% from the current price of Rmb102.19 [1][18] 2. Market Share Projections: Envicool is expected to capture a 7% share of the global server liquid cooling market by 2028E, increasing to 10% by 2030E, up from 1% in 2025E [2][35] 3. Sales and Earnings Growth: The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 44% in total sales and 58% in earnings from 2025E to 2030E, driven by the server cooling segment [2][19] 4. Global Server Cooling Market: The total addressable market (TAM) for global server cooling has been revised upwards by 9% to US$7.9 billion in 2025E and US$14.0 billion in 2026E, with a projected growth of 111% year-over-year in 2025 [3][33] 5. Financial Forecasts: Revised revenue forecasts for 2025E-2030E show an increase of 1% to 16%, with expected revenues of Rmb6.46 billion in 2025E and Rmb17.23 billion in 2027E [19][35] 6. Profitability Improvement: Gross profit margins (GPM) are expected to improve to an average of 30% from 2025E to 2030E, up from a previous estimate of 29% [2][35] 7. Capex Increase: Capital expenditure assumptions have been raised by 9% to an average of Rmb1.3 billion to support global production capacity expansion [2][35] 8. Strong Growth Outlook: The company is projected to achieve 79% revenue growth and 127% EPS growth in 2026E, with shares currently trading at a forward P/E of 73x [18][35] Additional Important Insights 1. Liquid Cooling Adoption: The adoption of liquid cooling technology is expected to accelerate due to increasing demand from AI training servers, with projections indicating that 80% of AI training servers will utilize liquid cooling by 2027E [30][35] 2. Market Sensitivity Analysis: A sensitivity analysis indicates that capturing a 15% market share could imply an 80% upside in valuation, while failure to expand overseas could result in a 30% downside risk [20][22] 3. Valuation Context: The current stock valuation is considered undemanding compared to sector averages, with a strong growth trajectory and improving margins [35] 4. Strategic Partnerships: Envicool has been recognized as a partner in NVIDIA's MGX ecosystem, indicating strong industry relationships that may enhance future sales [28][35] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding Shenzhen Envicool Technology's market position, financial outlook, and strategic initiatives within the precision cooling technology sector.