2026-01-13 11:56Summary of Key Points from the Expert Call on Oil Market Outlook Industry Overview - The discussion focused on the global oil market, particularly the outlook for 2026, with insights from Dr. Anas Alhajji, Managing Partner at Energy Outlook Advisors [1] Core Insights - Oil Price Projections: Brent crude oil prices are expected to remain stable in the $60s per barrel, with fluctuations driven by geopolitical events or perceived oversupply being temporary [1] - Demand vs. Surplus: The perceived surplus in the oil market is considered exaggerated. Stronger-than-expected demand, especially from the US, is anticipated, with a growth estimate of approximately 1.2 million barrels per day (Mb/d) for 2026 [2] - China's Role: China has absorbed about 70% of the increase in oil inventories over the past year, but its inventory levels may limit price increases, with Brent prices above $70/bbl likely triggering selling [3] - US Shale Production: US shale production growth is slowing, with the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) absorbing the supply growth since January [4] - Venezuela's Production Outlook: Venezuelan oil production is not expected to rebound quickly, with potential upside capped at around 0.2 Mb/d. The country has significant storage capacity available, allowing it to maintain production levels despite sanctions [5] - OPEC+ Dynamics: There is skepticism regarding OPEC+'s ability to significantly change production capacity disclosures, as many members are historically protective of their production data [6] Additional Considerations - Investment Risks: The oil market is characterized by high volatility due to unpredictable political, geological, and economic factors, which can significantly affect supply and demand [8] - Strategic Reserves: The build-up of strategic reserves in both China and the US is seen as a factor that supports oil demand and mitigates perceived oversupply [2] - Market Sentiment: The expert acknowledged a previous underestimation of demand for non-sanctioned OPEC+ crude, which contributed to unexpected price movements [6] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the expert call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the oil market.