全球液化天然气：2026 年展望-人人都预见的供应潮，该如何应对-Global LNG_ 2026 Outlook. The supply wave which everyone sees coming. But what to do_

Summary of Key Points from the LNG Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Global LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) market, particularly the outlook for 2026 and beyond, highlighting significant supply and demand dynamics in the industry [1][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - Demand Growth: Global LNG demand increased by 3% to 406 MTPA in 2025, with a forecasted growth of 8.5% to 441 MTPA in 2026, primarily driven by Asia [1][12]. - Regional Demand Variations: Key Asian markets experienced declines in LNG demand: China (-12%), Japan (-2%), and India (-4%). In contrast, European LNG imports rose by 15% due to inventory builds and reduced reliance on Russian pipeline gas [1][39]. - Supply Surge: 2026 is expected to mark the largest supply wave in LNG history, with 93 MTPA of new capacity coming online in 2025-26, predominantly from the US, which accounted for 80% of new supply in 2025 [2][8]. - Price Projections: Spot LNG prices are anticipated to decline from $12/mmbtu in 2025 to an average of $9/mmbtu in 2026-28, with potential downside risks to $5-6/mmbtu if supply exceeds demand [4][12]. Additional Important Insights - Market Transition: The LNG market is shifting from a seller's market to a buyer's market, with a net long position expected from 2026 onward due to substantial supply additions [3][12]. - Project Sanctioning Trends: The pace of LNG project final investment decisions (FIDs) is expected to slow in 2026 after a record 68 MTPA of new projects were approved in 2025. Only the lowest-cost projects are likely to advance due to narrowed price spreads [5][28]. - Long-term Supply Outlook: Despite a well-supplied market in the near term, there are 100 MTPA of projects competing for FID in 2026, with a long-term supply gap of 135 MTPA projected by 2040 [6][32]. - Impact of Russian Gas Supply: A material return of Russian gas supply to Europe could lead to oversupply in the market, significantly affecting LNG pricing and demand dynamics [6][30]. Investment Implications - The anticipated supply surge and resulting price declines suggest a more favorable outlook for downstream gas utilities in Asia, such as ENN Energy and Kunlun Energy, compared to upstream LNG-focused exploration and production companies [8][12]. Conclusion - The LNG market is poised for significant changes in the coming years, driven by unprecedented supply growth and shifting demand patterns. Investors should closely monitor these dynamics to identify potential opportunities and risks in the sector [8][12].