台积电：2030 年营收有望达 3000 亿美元

TSMC (2330.TW) Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - Company: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - Market Cap: NT$43,566,640 million (approximately US$1,380,482 million) [6][8] Key Industry Insights - Revenue Growth: TSMC is expected to achieve revenue growth of 20-25% in 2026, driven by strong demand from AI datacenters and edge AI applications [1][2] - Long-term Revenue Target: TSMC's revenue is projected to reach US$300 billion by 2030, aligning with a long-term CAGR of 20% [1][4] - AI Revenue Growth: TSMC anticipates a mid-40s% CAGR in AI revenue by 2029, with potential for upward revision during the upcoming earnings call [9][32] Financial Performance - Recent Sales: TSMC reported 4Q25 revenue of NT$1,046 billion, a 6% QoQ increase, surpassing guidance of a 1% decline [4] - Earnings Projections: - 2023A: Net Profit NT$838,498 million, EPS NT$32.33 - 2024A: Net Profit NT$1,173,268 million, EPS NT$45.24 - 2025E: Net Profit NT$1,670,190 million, EPS NT$64.40 - 2026E: Net Profit NT$2,200,192 million, EPS NT$84.84 - 2027E: Net Profit NT$2,805,252 million, EPS NT$108.17 [5][8] Capital Expenditure (Capex) - Capex Guidance: TSMC's capex for 2026 is expected to be around US$50 billion, with a focus on advanced nodes (N3/N2) and advanced packaging [3][11] - Capacity Expansion: TSMC plans to increase N3 capacity by 30% by early 2027 and aims for CoWoS capacity of 1.2-1.3 million wafers in 2026 and 1.8-2 million wafers in 2027 [3][11] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Customer Demand: TSMC is expected to see strong demand from major customers like Nvidia and Google, particularly for AI chips and advanced packaging solutions [11][25] - Pricing Strategy: Anticipated price hikes of 5-10% due to technology mix and demand dynamics are expected to positively impact TSMC's gross margins [25][26] Valuation and Investment Outlook - Target Price: The target price for TSMC has been raised to NT$2,450 from NT$1,800, reflecting a 45.8% expected return [6][4] - Investment Recommendation: The recommendation remains a "Buy" based on strong growth prospects and favorable market conditions [1][4] Additional Insights - Gross Margin Stability: Despite potential impacts from foreign exchange and advanced node dilution, TSMC is expected to maintain a gross margin of around 60% throughout 2026 [4] - Analyst Expectations: Analysts expect TSMC to provide a positive outlook during the upcoming earnings call, with strong demand for its leading process nodes and advanced packaging business [32] This summary encapsulates the key points from TSMC's earnings call and provides a comprehensive overview of the company's financial health, market position, and future outlook.