中国半导体-非 AI 交易机会：市场情绪极度悲观 + 短期数据走强-Greater China Semi - Non-AI trading opportunity__ Extremely bearish market sentiment + stronger near-term datapoints

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the semiconductor industry, particularly non-AI applications and companies like Realtek, Silergy, and others within the technology sector [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Market Sentiment and Performance: - The market sentiment is extremely bearish, but there are stronger near-term datapoints indicating a potential upside for non-AI applications in Q1 2026 [1]. - Non-cloud AI-focused companies have recently outperformed the TAIEX index, driven by sector rotation dynamics [1]. 2. Inventory Replenishment: - There is evidence of inventory replenishment activities across various non-cloud AI applications, including PCs and smartphones, which is expected to drive a stronger-than-expected outlook for Q1 2026 [1][2]. 3. Order Inflows and Trading Opportunities: - Despite a potentially weaker second half of 2026, there are encouraging prospects for unexpected order inflows in Q1 2026, which could present trading upside opportunities [2]. 4. Company-Specific Insights: - Silergy (6415 TT): - Faced challenges in 2025 due to tariffs but is expected to benefit from near-term restocking momentum and consumer subsidies in China [4]. - Likely to beat revenue forecasts for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 due to earlier pull-in of PCs and subsidies [4]. - Aiming for a structural revenue growth target of 20% year-on-year in the second half of 2026 [4]. - Realtek (2379 TT): - Positioned to exceed Bloomberg consensus sales expectations of 9.5% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q1 2026 [6]. - Recently showcased its SSD controllers at CES, marking a significant milestone despite not expecting substantial revenue contributions from this opportunity [9]. 5. PC Semiconductor Market: - Projected global PC shipments to decline by 2.8% year-on-year in 2026, following a growth of 5.8% in 2025 [5]. - Recent industry checks suggest that full-year shipment volumes could be lower than initial projections, but some companies may report a better outlook for Q1 2026 due to inventory restocking [6]. Additional Important Insights - The pricing strategies of competitors like Texas Instruments and Analog Devices may positively influence analog pricing, benefiting companies like Silergy [4]. - The overall structural positive view on AI semiconductors remains consistent, despite the focus on non-AI applications in the short term [2]. Conclusion - The semiconductor industry, particularly non-AI applications, is experiencing a complex landscape with bearish sentiment but potential for recovery driven by inventory restocking and consumer subsidies. Companies like Silergy and Realtek are positioned to capitalize on these trends, while the PC market faces challenges ahead.