中国股票策略：2026 年 A 股短期及全年展望-China Equity Strategy_ Near-term and full-year 2026 A-share outlook in charts

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the A-share market in China, which has shown volatility in Q4 2025 but is expected to stabilize and grow in 2026 due to various positive catalysts [2][4][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - Market Volatility and Recovery: The A-share market experienced a volatile Q4 2025, influenced by global equity trends, profit-taking by investors, and peak investor interest in tech stocks. However, a new uptrend is anticipated in 2026, supported by a broad rally in tech stocks and renewed investor interest [2][4]. - Earnings Growth Expectations: A-share earnings growth is projected to accelerate from 6% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, driven by faster nominal GDP growth and supportive policies. The equity risk premium for A-shares remains above historical averages, indicating potential for further re-rating [4][56]. - Market Activity Indicators: The A-share market has seen an increase in average daily turnover to Rmb 2.46 trillion in 2026 from Rmb 1.73 trillion in 2025, with margin financing reaching a record Rmb 2.58 trillion [2][4]. - Sector Preferences: The report favors sectors benefiting from innovation and liquidity, including electronics, telecom, non-bank financials, national defense, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and electrical equipment. Cyclicals are expected to outperform defensives [5][132]. Additional Important Insights - Catalysts for Market Growth: Key catalysts include upcoming earnings results from ChiNext and STAR Market, market activity metrics, and the pace of fund issuance. These factors are crucial for assessing the growth trajectory of tech earnings [3]. - Household Savings and Fund Inflows: There is a significant amount of household excess savings, which could drive continued inflows into the A-share market. The balance of insurance funds' investments in equity assets has also increased, indicating a positive trend for market liquidity [27][105]. - Government Policies: The unveiling of the national consumer goods subsidy program and calls for stabilization in the property market are expected to bolster market confidence and economic growth [2][4]. Conclusion - The A-share market is poised for a positive outlook in 2026, supported by earnings growth, favorable market conditions, and strategic sector allocations. Investors are encouraged to focus on growth-oriented sectors and monitor key market indicators for potential investment opportunities [4][5][132].