核心关注点与主题-短期全球数据事件风险与我们的核心交易-Key focus and themes - Near-term global data_event risks and our top trades_

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Focus - Foreign Exchange and Rates Strategy: The conference call primarily discusses strategies and outlooks for foreign exchange (FX) and interest rates across various regions, particularly Asia and G10 currencies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. USD/CNH Outlook: The current spot reference for USD/CNH is 6.980, with expectations for potential movements in the next three months [1] 2. Top FX Trades: - Long CNH/KRW with a target of 216 by end-February, conviction level raised to 4/5 [2][9] - Long NZD/USD targeting 0.6000 by end-March, conviction level at 4/5 [2][16] - New long positions initiated in EUR/GBP and SGD/IDR, both with conviction levels of 3/5 [2][9] 3. US Economic Indicators: - December NFP report showed +50K jobs added vs. consensus of +70K, with an unemployment rate of 4.4% [4] - Upcoming US core CPI release on January 13 is anticipated to be significant, with a forecast of 0.5% m-o-m, which could influence Fed rate cut expectations [7] 4. China's Economic Data: - December exports are expected to show a slowdown to 3.0% y-o-y from 5.9% previously, which could impact RMB performance [8] - Positive expectations for RMB appreciation due to stable external sector conditions and reduced USD purchases by banks [18] 5. Korean Won (KRW) Dynamics: - Anticipated underperformance of KRW due to retail outflows into US equities and structural outflows from the Korea National Pension Service [20] 6. Singapore Monetary Policy: - MAS may tighten FX policy in April 2026, with a 30% chance of a slight slope increase in January [21] 7. Indonesian Fiscal Concerns: - Indonesia's fiscal deficit is projected to be 2.92% of GDP, raising concerns about future fiscal policy under the new administration [22][23] 8. Taiwan's Currency Position: - Maintaining a short USD/TWD position with a target of 29.8 by end-May 2026, supported by strong local fundamentals and global AI demand [24] Other Important Insights 1. Market Reactions to US Tariffs: The Supreme Court's decision on Trump's tariffs could lead to significant market reactions, with expectations of a ruling against the tariffs [4][6] 2. NOK/SEK Trade: Profit taken on short NOK/SEK trade due to changes in Norges Bank's FX activity, with a bullish outlook on SEK [11] 3. JPY Weakness: Ongoing concerns about JPY weakness amid geopolitical tensions and the need for reassurance from Japanese authorities [12] 4. Canadian Dollar (CAD) Performance: CAD has weakened due to falling crude oil prices and potential shifts in US oil imports [13] 5. AUD Valuation: AUD is considered undervalued, with a target of 0.6875 by end-March, supported by positive global sentiment [14][15] This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, highlighting the strategic outlook for various currencies and the macroeconomic factors influencing these positions.