长期策略：全球展望-Long-term Strategy_ Global Outlook

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The analysis covers long-term challenges and opportunities in the investment landscape, particularly focusing on expected returns across various asset classes and the implications of demographic changes, AI, governance, climate change, and globalization on market dynamics [6][7][19][31]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Expected Returns: - US Aggregate Bond Index is expected to yield 4.6% per annum over the next decade, while the S&P 500 is projected at 3.5% per annum [7][19]. - The forecast for US High Grade Corporate bonds is 4.8% per annum, and for Euro Aggregate Bond Index, it is 3.4% per annum [7][19]. 2. Market Conditions: - Current markets are considered expensive, leading to low long-term returns. Equity and credit returns are expected to be similar, with a depreciation of the USD projected at -1.4% per annum against the average G10 currencies [7][19]. - Demographic trends indicate an aging population, falling fertility rates, and a shrinking working-age population, which are expected to raise bond yields and lower long-term equity returns [54][64]. 3. Impact of AI: - AI is anticipated to provide a moderate productivity boost, with long-term productivity growth supported by 0.5-1.0% per annum. However, this may not be sufficient to counteract the negative effects of working-age population decline [69][75]. - The US is likely to benefit the most from AI advancements due to its technological leadership and sector composition [81][88]. 4. Governance and Political Climate: - Increasing polarization and populism are noted as significant risks, potentially leading to lower long-term equity returns and higher volatility in investment [89][128]. - The report highlights a trend of declining democratic ratings, particularly in the US, which has historically preceded long-term equity underperformance [128]. 5. Climate Change: - Climate risk is identified as a critical factor affecting asset pricing, particularly in emerging markets (EM), where geographical vulnerabilities may lead to increased capital demand and macroeconomic volatility [160][169]. - The report suggests that climate change could raise real interest rates due to increased demand for capital and adverse supply shocks [160]. 6. Globalization and Industrial Policy: - A slight trend towards deglobalization is observed, with geopolitical tensions leading to a decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio flows [174]. - The resurgence of industrial policy, particularly in large developed markets (DM), is expected to focus on strategic sectors, potentially benefiting small corporates more than large ones [180]. 7. Debt Sustainability: - Concerns about sovereign debt sustainability are raised, with higher debt levels and interest rates expected to create a feedback loop that could lead to crises similar to past events [149][150]. - The US is highlighted as facing significant challenges regarding its debt levels, particularly with the impending exhaustion of Social Security Trust Fund assets [156]. Other Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of immigration as a key factor in mitigating working-age population decline in certain countries [68]. - It also discusses the potential for the US dollar to face long-term depreciation due to gradual de-dollarization trends influenced by geopolitical factors [185]. - The analysis concludes with a strategic country scorecard, comparing long-term signals across various countries, indicating that the US maintains some favorable economic fundamentals despite risks [197]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current investment landscape and future expectations.