晶圆厂规划更新-台积电 2027 年资本支出；中介层外包给 Vanguard-The Foundry Floorplan Update on TSMC's 2027 capex; interposer outsourcing to Vanguard

Summary of TSMC's 2027 Capex Update and Foundry Dynamics Company and Industry Overview - Company: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - Industry: Semiconductor Foundry - Date of Report: January 13, 2026 Key Points and Arguments TSMC's Capital Expenditure (Capex) - TSMC's estimated capex for 2027 has been raised to US$54 billion, up from US$49 billion in 2026, driven by strong demand for 2nm and AI semiconductors [1][8][19] - The company is expected to see EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) orders increase by approximately 40-50% from 2026 levels [1][8] Capacity and Production Plans - TSMC plans to convert part of its Fab 12 and Fab 14 capacity for interposer production and may outsource CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) interposer production to Vanguard in 2027 [1][8][9] - The company added ~20kwpm of its 55nm/65nm capacity for interposer production in 2025, indicating strong demand for AI semiconductors [9] Market Dynamics and Competitors - Data center-related PMIC (Power Management Integrated Circuit) faces shortages, with SMIC and Vanguard expected to benefit and potentially increase their 8-inch wafer prices [1][8] - Samsung Foundry is gradually reducing its 8-inch engineering resources to support leading-edge demand, which may lead to a shift of some display driver IC orders to UMC in the second half of 2027 [1][8] Financial Projections and Stock Ratings - TSMC's revenue growth is projected at 30% year-over-year in 2026, exceeding the Street consensus of 24% [1][23] - Price targets for TSMC have been raised to NT$1,988 from NT$1,888 [1][48] - UMC has been downgraded to Underweight due to potential investor disappointment regarding wafer price hikes and interposer production [1][8] Foundry 2.0 Concept - TSMC introduced the Foundry 2.0 concept, expanding its business definition to include both front-end and back-end operations, with advanced packaging revenue approaching 10% of total revenue by 2025 [32][33] Long-term Outlook - TSMC is expected to outgrow the foundry industry due to its leadership position and heavy capex investments compared to peers [1][24] - The company aims to expand its 2nm capacity to 140kwpm by 2027, with further growth anticipated beyond that [1][24] Additional Important Insights - TSMC's EUV layer count for future nodes is not significantly increasing, but the installed base of EUV scanners is expected to accelerate, particularly in 2027 [11] - The report highlights the importance of TSMC's capacity expansion as a key driver for the entire foundry industry's growth and revenue trajectory [19][23] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding TSMC's strategic direction, financial outlook, and the broader semiconductor foundry landscape.