美国：核心 CPI 低于预期；预计 12 月核心 PCE 为 0.37%；新屋销售超预期，上调第四季度 GDP 追踪值-USA_ Core CPI Below Expectations; Estimating 0.37% for December Core PCE; New Home Sales Above Expectations; Boosting Q4 GDP Tracking

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. economic indicators, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and new home sales, which are critical for assessing inflation and economic growth trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. CPI and Core CPI Performance: - December core CPI rose by 0.24% month-over-month, which was below expectations, with a year-over-year rate of 2.64% [6][9] - Key components such as airfares (+5.2%), hotels (+3.5%), and apparel (+0.6%) showed significant rebounds after previous distortions due to shutdowns [6][8] - The rent and owners' equivalent rent components also rebounded, indicating a return to normal inflation rates after methodological adjustments [6][7] 2. Sector Contributions: - The communications category declined by 1.9%, contributing -7 basis points to the core CPI, while household furnishings and operations fell by 0.5%, contributing -3 basis points [6] - Notably, the software category rose by 7%, which has a significant weight in the core PCE [8] 3. PCE Price Index Estimates: - The core PCE price index is estimated to have risen by 0.37% in December, leading to a year-over-year rate of +2.85% [9] - The headline PCE price index is also expected to have increased by 0.37% in December, reflecting a 2.74% increase from the previous year [9] 4. New Home Sales Data: - New home sales increased by 1.8% month-over-month for October, reaching a seasonally adjusted annualized level of 737,000 units, which was above expectations [10] - Sales in August were revised down to 711,000 units, indicating a stronger performance in September and October than previously anticipated [10] 5. GDP Tracking Adjustments: - The stronger-than-expected single-family home sales led to an upward revision of the Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1 percentage points to +2.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) [11] - The domestic final sales estimate for Q4 stands at +0.9% [11] Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes that investors should consider these economic indicators as part of a broader analysis when making investment decisions [3] - The data reflects ongoing adjustments in the housing market and inflation trends, which are crucial for understanding the economic landscape [6][10][11]