中国多资产：五年规划与出口能见度提升带来积极催化-China Multi-Asset Positive Catalysts from Five-Year Plan and Clearer Exports Visibility

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - Industry: China Multi-Asset and Equity Markets - Focus: The impact of the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) on China's economy and stock market, particularly in sectors like Technology, Healthcare, Internet, and Basic Materials Core Insights and Arguments 1. Positive Catalysts from the 15th FYP: The FYP aims to consolidate the economy, endorse technological developments, and build a strong domestic market, which is expected to positively influence the market through 2026 [2][24][26] 2. Export Growth: China's share of global exports increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 15.0% in 2025, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 due to comprehensive value chains and automation in manufacturing [3][38] 3. EPS Growth Projections: HSI EPS growth is projected to rise to 9.1% year-on-year in 2026 from 2.2% in 2025, driven by reduced competition in the internet sector and upward revisions in other sectors [4][44] 4. Sector Upgrades and Downgrades: Basic Materials upgraded to Overweight due to rising commodity prices, while Consumer is downgraded to Neutral and Auto to Underweight due to low consumption prospects and retail sales declines [5][49] 5. Economic Outlook: A measured policy expansion is anticipated, with a fiscal stimulus of approximately RMB 1 trillion and rate cuts expected to support economic growth [6][12] Additional Important Insights 1. K-Shaped Growth Pattern: The economy is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, with the new economy performing well while traditional sectors lag behind [6][18] 2. Government Debt and Fiscal Policy: The fiscal deficit rose to 4% in 2025, with limited room for further expansion in 2026 due to rising government gearing [14][41] 3. Youth Unemployment: High youth unemployment remains a concern, hovering around 20%, while overall unemployment is less of a concern due to rising retirement numbers [18][22] 4. Trade Relations: The signing of a China-US trade deal has improved confidence in international trade, which is expected to boost export growth in 2026 [32][36] 5. Sector Preferences: The technology sector is prioritized, with expectations for continued upgrades in AI server supply chains and hardware, while the software sector is expected to recover earnings as IT budgets normalize [28][29] Conclusion The conference call highlighted a positive outlook for China's economy and stock market driven by the 15th FYP, with specific sectoral shifts and growth projections. The focus on technological innovation and export competitiveness positions China favorably for the coming years, despite challenges in traditional sectors and youth unemployment.