原油评论：市场对伊朗、委内瑞拉供应冲击的定价-Oil Comment_ Market Pricing of Iran and Venezuela Shocks [Corrected]

14 January 2026 | 7:22AM EST Commodities Research Oil Comment: Market Pricing of Iran and Venezuela Shocks [Corrected] 1 A 1mb/d permanent decline in production tends to raise (the OECD inventory-based fair value of) prices by $8/bbl 12 months after the shock (assuming OPEC doesn't make up the shortfall). 2 We expect Venezuela crude to rise from 0.83mb/d in Dec25 to 1.07mb/d in Dec26 as several producers (including at our GS Energy Conference) have indicated that production could rise moderately with sancti ...