宏观研究焦点：美联储独立性担忧再起、地缘风险升温、美国通胀放缓、中国通缩-What's Top of Mind in Macro Research_ Renewed Fed independence concerns, heightened geopolitical risk, less US inflation China deflation

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - Macro Environment: The discussion highlights concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, geopolitical risks, and inflation trends in the US and China [2][5][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - Fed Independence Concerns: - There are worries about the potential impact of the Department of Justice's investigation into Fed Chair Powell on Fed policy. A less independent Fed could lead to increased inflation and diminish the appeal of the US Dollar, affecting its status as a reserve currency [2][5]. - The report suggests that a less independent Fed may reduce foreign investment in US Treasuries, while gold could see price increases as a hedge against these risks, with a forecast of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 [2][3]. - Geopolitical Risks: - Ongoing tensions in Venezuela and Iran are noted as significant factors that could increase the value of commodities, particularly gold. Central banks are expected to diversify into gold to hedge against geopolitical risks [3][4]. - Oil markets are described as vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions, with potential price spikes due to sanctions on countries like Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. The forecast for Brent oil prices has been adjusted down to $58 per barrel for 2027 [4][6]. - Inflation Trends: - The US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.24% in December, with expectations for a return to 0.3% in January. A decline in inflation is anticipated throughout 2026, with a year-over-year core CPI forecast of 2.0% by December [11][12]. - In contrast, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rise due to government efforts to manage price-cutting and overcapacity, although the reflation process is expected to be gradual [12]. Additional Important Insights - Earnings Reporting Season: - The 4Q25 US earnings reporting season is underway, with expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth of 7% year-over-year, which may be conservative. Revenue growth is anticipated to exceed consensus expectations due to solid GDP growth and a weaker Dollar [13]. - AI and Labor Market: - The potential impact of AI on the labor market is being monitored, with forecasts suggesting a 15% increase in productivity but also a displacement of 6-7% of jobs as AI is adopted [17]. - US Policy Implications: - The report discusses President Trump's proposals to cap credit card interest rates and support homeownership, which could impact credit card profitability and benefit builders and building product companies [17]. Conclusion - The macroeconomic landscape is influenced by Fed independence, geopolitical tensions, and inflation trends, with significant implications for investment strategies in commodities, equities, and the broader market. The upcoming earnings season and AI developments are also critical areas to watch for potential market shifts [2][3][11][13][17].