中国 - 第四季度 GDP 及 12 月经济数据前瞻：工业生产或走强，投资疲软、消费低迷，-China_ Q4 GDP and December activity data preview_ Expecting stronger industrial production, sluggish investment, weaker retail sales and Q4

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, specifically the Q4 GDP and December activity data, including industrial production (IP), fixed asset investment (FAI), and retail sales [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Industrial Production (IP) Growth: - Expected to rise to 5.4% year-on-year (yoy) in December from 4.8% yoy in November, driven by stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMIs and exports [1][2]. - Manufacturing exports projected to increase to 6.6% yoy in December from 5.9% yoy in November [2]. - Notable decline in auto output growth to -4.6% yoy in December from +3.0% yoy in November, and a widening contraction in steel production to -5.1% yoy [2][10]. 2. Fixed Asset Investment (FAI): - Year-on-year FAI growth expected to remain depressed at -8.9% in December, slightly improving from -10.7% in November [1][10]. - Year-to-date FAI growth forecasted at -3.3% yoy in December, reflecting both statistical corrections and structural headwinds such as "anti-involution" policies and a prolonged property downturn [10]. 3. Retail Sales: - Anticipated to slow further to 0.6% yoy in December from 1.3% yoy in November, influenced by declining auto sales and subdued home appliance sales due to funding shortages [1][10]. - Auto retail sales volume growth dropped to -14% yoy in December from -8% yoy in November [10]. 4. Real GDP Growth: - Forecasted to moderate to 4.5% yoy in Q4 from 4.8% yoy in Q3, with domestic demand weakening despite resilient exports [1][10]. - The forecast suggests that the full-year real GDP growth for 2025 would be around 5.0%, aligning with the government's growth target [10]. Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that the forecasts for December IP are modestly above market consensus, while those for retail sales and FAI are below consensus [7][10]. - The services industry output index is expected to remain stable and outperform retail sales growth, indicating a shift in consumption patterns towards services [10]. - The report highlights the potential for revisions in historical estimates of sequential GDP growth when the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases quarterly GDP data [10]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call regarding the Chinese economy's performance and expectations for Q4 and December activity data.