2026 年跨商品展望更新：当前位置战术性看多原油与贵金属，结构性看多欧洲铝期货-Cross-Commodity Outlook 2026 Update tactically bullish oil and precious metals from current levels structurally bullish aluminium EUAs

Summary of Key Points from the Commodity Outlook Update Industry Overview - The report provides an update on the outlook for energy, metals, bulks, and agricultural commodities for 2026, with a focus on oil, precious metals, aluminium, and EUAs [1] Oil Market Insights - Oil prices are expected to rally to around $70/bbl due to rising geopolitical risks related to Iran and Russia/Ukraine, alongside export disruptions from Kazakhstan, Libya, and Algeria [2] - A moderation in geopolitical risks is anticipated by the second half of 2026, with potential price pressures from a fundamental surplus and political influences ahead of the November 2026 US mid-term elections [2] Precious Metals Forecast - Silver is projected to outperform gold, with expected prices of $100/oz for silver and $5,000/oz for gold [3] - The report suggests that these price levels will provide opportunities for producers and central banks to hedge against price declines [3] Aluminium and Base Metals Outlook - Aluminium is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with a near-term price target of $3,400/t, supported by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [21] - Copper prices are forecasted to reach $14,000/t in the near term, driven by market momentum and demand expectations [25] - Nickel prices are projected to rise to $20,000/t in the short term but are expected to retreat to $16,000/t over the next 6-12 months due to supply growth and market surplus [28] Natural Gas and LNG - The report anticipates a global LNG oversupply starting in 2027, with average prices projected at $9.5/MMBtu for JKM LNG and $8.8/MMBtu for TTF in 2026 [37] - US natural gas prices may decline further due to strong production, but winter demand remains a factor [37] Agricultural Commodities - Coffee prices are expected to decline to $3.40/lb in 3 months and $3/lb in 12 months due to increasing inventories and favorable crop conditions in Brazil and Vietnam [46] EUAs and Carbon Pricing - EUAs are projected to reach €95/t as policymakers avoid direct intervention in the EU ETS, focusing on support for energy-intensive industries [44] - The EU Commission has expanded the list of eligible sectors for indirect cost compensation, reinforcing the bullish outlook for EUA prices [45] Additional Insights - The report highlights the potential for further inflows into base metals driven by macroeconomic factors and investor sentiment [19] - There is a cautionary note regarding the sustainability of current price levels beyond the first quarter of 2026, with expectations of profit-taking and market corrections [13][14] This summary encapsulates the key insights and forecasts from the commodity outlook update, providing a comprehensive overview of the expected trends and market dynamics across various sectors.