中国 AI 月度观察：中美估值对比-China AI Monthly US vs China Valuation

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the AI industry in China and its comparison with the US AI market. - The valuation of AI in the US has increased by approximately US$8 trillion (42%) since July 2024, while China's AI valuation has risen by about US$732 billion (88%) since January 2025, indicating significant growth in both markets [1][2][58]. Core Insights and Arguments - Valuation Comparison: - The US AI market is currently valued at 26x 2026E PE, while China's AI market is trading at approximately 24x 2026E PE, with an implied 253x incremental PE for China, significantly higher than the US [2][58]. - The market cap of China's AI basket is only 8% of the US, despite having a capital expenditure (capex) ratio of 18% [1][2][61]. - Performance Gap: - The performance gap between China's AI models and the best US models has narrowed to 6%, down from 8% in November 2025, largely due to advancements in Zhipu's GLM 4.7 [4][40][101]. - Government Support: - A new supportive AI policy from the Chinese government aims to deploy multiple general LLMs in manufacturing and develop a significant number of industrial datasets and benchmark use cases, which is expected to boost the AI sector [5][61]. - Market Dynamics: - China's AI basket is primarily driven by CSPs (65% of market cap) and SPE (8%), while the US market is dominated by CSPs (46%) and IC design (26%) [3][58]. - Chinese CSPs, AI applications, and IDCs are trading at a discount compared to their US counterparts, while IC design, foundries, and SPE stocks in China are trading at a premium [3][30][31]. Additional Important Insights - Investment Opportunities: - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in companies like VNET, GDS, and Kingdee, which are expected to benefit from the positive market dynamics in China [3]. - Market Growth: - The Chinese AI market is expected to see further upside due to its early stage of development and the anticipated increase in AI-related IPOs [61][62]. - Model Performance: - In the fourth quarter of 2025, Chinese flagship LLMs improved faster than most US peers, indicating a competitive edge in AI model development [96][98]. - Acquisition Trends: - The acquisition of Manus by Meta for over US$2 billion marks a significant event, being the first acquisition of a Chinese AI startup by a US tech giant, which could influence future investment and collaboration trends [110]. - Leading AI Applications: - Doubao remains the largest LLM app in China, with a monthly active user (MAU) count of 163 million, followed by Quark at 148 million. The rapid growth of DeepSeek's MAU to 131 million reflects the increasing adoption of AI applications [111][113]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the growth, valuation, and competitive landscape of the AI industry in China compared to the US.